The NFL Playoffs – The Definitive Dubsism Oddsmaker’s View

1) New England Patriots

Why They Can Win:

If you ever needed proof the Patriots are a dynasty like the Steelers of the 70’s and 49ers of the 80’s, the fact that I get violent nausea just mentioning Tom Brady or Bill Belichick should tel the tale. In comparison, just mentioning the New York Yankess cranks me another notch toward fatal rectal cancer. What really drives me nuts is this may be the most impressive season of all in this current run.  They made a star out of that munchkin Danny Woodhead. They traded (speaking of cancer) Randy Moss.  They can’t run the ball and their defense couldn’t stop a Pop Warner team, yet somehow they are 14-2 record. I just can’t see this team losing right now.

Why They Can’t Win:

Either Tom Brady will finally have an episode of Cutler Syndrome, or the defense will prove to be the Achilles’ heel it looks to be.

Odds of Winning: 2 to 1

2) Pittsburgh Steelers

Why They Can Win:

The “Big Ben” episode from the beginning of the season seems to be ancient history, and this team is very quietly playing like the elite team they are, even if they are on the “Rodney Dangerfield” list for not getting any respect.

Why They Can’t Win:

This team can win without Ben Roethlisberger. This team can win without a lot of people; Troy Polamalu isn’t one of them. The strength of this team is its defense, and Polamalu is the backbone of the entire unti. Without him, the Steelers become the Aluminumers.

Odds of Winning: 3 to 1

3) Philadelphia Eagles

Why They Can Win:

Take a coin out of your pocket. This coin represents the streakiness of the Philadelphia Eagles. Flip the coin. Heads, Eagles win.  A month ago, I had this team as the best in the NFC,  but that complete lack of consistency drives me batshit crazy.

Why They Can’t Win:

Flip that coin Again. Shit, Tales.

Michael Vick is easily my favorite player to watch in the NFL; he is fucking electrifying to watch. Between him and Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy, this may be the fastest offense I’ve ever seen.

Flip that coin again. Goddamnit, tales again.

Odds of Winning: 3 to 1

4) Baltimore Ravens

Why They Can Win:

If you know the difference between Target and WalMart, then you know the difference between the Steelers and the Ravens. The shopping carts are little cleaner and they roll a little straighter at Target, but you get better prices at WalMart. The Baltimore Ravens are WalMart, and nobody loves to save a buck more than a Hot-Pocket eating blogger.

Why They Can’t Win:

Three things stand in this team’s way: Joe Flacco’s consistency, the fact they didn’t win the AFC North; it will be difficult for them to win three tough games in a row, and that old guy that hands out the shopping carts at the door.

Odds of Winning: 5 to 1

5) New Orleans Saints

Why They Can Win:

As goes Drew Brees, so go the Saints. But this season, New Orleans has been the scene of a Robert Louis Stevenson novel, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Brees. Sometmes this season, it seems Drew drank the concoction and became this ham-fisted monster, tossing picks at a near Favrian clip. If Drew Brees doesn’t give away the football, the Saints are dangerous.

Why They Can’t Win:

The complete absence of a running game now that Pierre Thomas and Christopher Ivory are both out…and the fact there hasn’t been another hurricane so everybody will feel sorry for them.

Odds of Winning: 6 to 1

6) Green Bay Packers

Why They Can Win:

In short,  three reasons: Aaron Rodgers, who once he wins his first playoff game may just win three more, a superb vertical passing game, and a play-making ball-hawk defense.

Why They Can’t Win:

In what is clearly becoming a theme here, the Packers may be the purest example of the “can’t really run” team. It’s like everybody suddenly thought the “Dan Marino” model was the way to go. It’s like everybody forgot how many championships Marino won

Odds of Winning: 8 to 1

7) Atlanta Falcons

Why They Can Win:

Atlanta may be the most complete and balanced team in this tournament, and they easily could be rated much higher.  The most  recent loss to the Saints just seems like too much of a warning sign there’s a demon out there which will present itself during a play-off game.

Why They Can’t Win:

Matt Ryan is a heady quarterback who plays so intelligently, and while those comparisons to Peyton Manning very well may be accurate, Ryan has yet to show himself on that level in a big game. If he does, expect the Falcons to fold because Manning has always been a terrible “big game” quarterback; Manning’s only Super Bowl win comes from Lovie Smith’s refusal to get Rex Grossman off the field. Eventually, I think Ryan will prove to be a “big-game” quarterback, I’m just not sold this is the year.

Odds of Winning: 10 to 1

8 ) Chicago Bears

Why They Can Win:

To be honest, I don’t have a good answer for this. Granted, when Jay Cutler is on, he makes the Bears look like a legitimate contender. But he’s never been “on” for more than two games in a row. Plus, he is a colossal douchebag. Combined with the dumbest coach who never seems to be on the hot seat,  Lovie “Rex Grossman is my guy” Smith, I just can’t think of a single reason why the Bears should be taken seriously, except for Devin “Stop Kicking to Him” Hester.

Why They Can’t Win:

They are the worst 11-5 team I’ve ever seen – they define over-rated. Brian Urlacher is the face of this franchise, and he doesn’t just define over-rated, he is the Pope and Infallible Leader of the Church of Over-rated.  To Cutler’s credit, somehow he has managed to stay alive behind an offensive line comprised of Olin Kreutz and four turnstiles, but let’s not forget this: To all you people who think the Bears are for real and think the Seahawks don’t belong in the playoffs, remember the SeaHacks beat the Bears in October.

Odds of Winning: 12 to 1

9) New York Jets

Why They Can Win:

The Jets are still very bold and still have playmakers.  Rex Ryan is one those guys that makes anything possible.

Why They Can’t Win:

Because they have yet to back up all their trash-talk. Don’t get me wrong, I love Rex Ryan, but he needs to put up or shut up. If this team can get past either Pittsburgh and/or New England, they will win it all. But they have yet to show me they have the stones to make the move from good to great.

Odds of Winning: 15 to 1

10) Kansas City Chiefs

Why They Can Win:

There is an inviolable rule about play-off football: never count out a team that can a) run the ball and b) play defense. This is the recipe the Chefs used to get this far, and with Matt Cassel playing like a legitimate NFL quarterback, Kansas City can be that team that has a “puncher’s chance.”

Why They Can’t Win:

Out of their ten wins, the Chiefs beat one playoff team (Seattle). They won a division so bad the Oakland Raiders went 6-0 in divisional games and couldn’t make the playoffs; the Chiefs could only manage a 2-4 record in the AFC West. It is also those deficiencies that make me suspect of the Chiefs #1 ranked running game; they racked up a lot of stats against teams like Oakland, Denver, Houston, Buffalo, and San Francisco.

Odds of Winning: 20 to 1

11) Indianapolis Colts

Why They Can Win:

Because Peyton Manning is one of the greatest players in the history on the NFL, and he isn’t far enough past his prime to be discounted.

Why They Can’t Win:

Because Peyton Manning is all they have. The Colts can’t run the ball, and they can’t stop anybody. Factor in all the injuries this team has suffered, and it becomes clear the Dolts’ days are numbered. In many respects, this might be the worst team in the play-offs despite all the moaning about the Seahawks 7-9 record.  All the Colts can do is throw the ball; the Seahawks can run and have shows glimpses of the ability to play defense, albeit not often enough.

Odds of Winning: 25 to 1

12) Seattle Seahawks

Why They Can Win:

Everybody else’s plane could crash, there could be a plague of locusts, ther could be a massive outbreak of food poisoning from the people who do all the NFL food handling…you don’t know, it could happen.

Why They Can’t Win:

To put it in gambling terms, The SeaHacks are drawing to an inside straight three times over.  Well, the first draw isn’t that long; it is concievable Seattle could win their home game against the Saints. New Orleans is beat up, it depends on which quarterback shows up, Dr. Brees or Mr. Hyde;  and Qwest Field is notoriously rough on visiting teams. But Seattle knows how to lose, as they have done it nine times this year, and none of those were closer than 16 points.

Odds of Winning: 75 to 1