The 2012 NFL Playoffs – The Definitive Dubsism Oddsmaker’s View

1) Green Bay Packers

Why They Can Win:

In this case, there’s three good reasons. First, just like in boxing, you are the champs until somebody beats you, and to get to the Super Bowl, an NFC team is going to have to pull that off in Lambeau Field in January. Secondly, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, who is Tom Brady before the very mention of his name drove me another notch toward rectal cancer. Third, and most simply, the Packers offense as a unit may be the most formidable weapon in the entire league.

Why They Can’t Win:

In what will prove to be a theme here, the Packers can barely run the ball, and their idea of defense is simply to outscore the opponent. They can make that work, but it is also an approach susceptible to failure.

Odds of Winning: 2.5 to 1

2) New Orleans Saints

Why They Can Win:

To be honest, I don’t have a good answer for this.  Last season, the Saints had two major flaws, First, Drew Brees tossed picks at a  near Favrian clip. That got fixed. The Saints also did not have a realistic offensive option coming out of the backfield. That got fixed too.

Why They Can’t Win:

They have to go on the road to get past Green Bay, which is going to be a tall order.

Odds of Winning: 4 to 1

3) Baltimore Ravens

Why They Can Win:

The worm has turned 180 degrees from this time last year, at which point I said the following:

“If you know the difference between Target and WalMart, then you know the difference between the Steelers and the Ravens. The shopping carts are little cleaner and they roll a little straighter at Target, but you get better prices at WalMart. The Baltimore Ravens are WalMart, and nobody loves to save a buck more than a Hot-Pocket eating blogger.”

Well, the Ravens are now Target, and the Steelers are now Walmart.  Target is better.

Why They Can’t Win:

Ray Rice remains the main offensive weapon of this team, as Joe Flacco still has  consistency issues. Any team that can force Flacco to be the play-maker has a puncher’s chance.

Odds of Winning: 8 to 1

4) San Francisco 49ers

Why They Can Win:

The 49ers might very well be the most complete and balanced team in this field. Alex Smith finally looks like an NFL quarterback, Frank Gore continues to deliver, and the defense is one of the best in the league.

Why They Can’t Win:

Jim Harbaugh may very well be the NFL coach of the year, but he’s still a Rookie head coach. Most of this team has never been down the playoff road before, and the way they got manhandled by the Ravens just seems like too much of a warning sign there’s a demon out there which will present itself during a playoff game.

Odds of Winning: 12 to 1

5) Pittsburgh Steelers

Why They Can Win:

The Steelers are are still very physical and still have playmakers.  Ben Roethlisberger is one those guys that makes anything possible.

Why They Can’t Win:

Like the rest of the team, Roethlisberger is beat up. Rashard Mendenhall is gone for the duration. The one guy this team absolutely cannot win without is Troy Polamalu, and he is nicked up as well.  Without him, the Steelers become the Aluminumers.

Odds of Winning: 15 to 1

6) New England Patriots

Why They Can Win:

Because Tom Brady is still Tom Brady; one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history on the NFL, and he isn’t far enough past his prime to be discounted.

Why They Can’t Win:

To see the future in Foxboro, just look toward Indianapolis. Don’t look right this second, because you may notice the Patriots are beginning to get old before your very eyes.  They are the worst 13-3 team I’ve ever seen – they define over-rated.  They can’t run the ball and their defense couldn’t stop a Pop Warner team, yet somehow they are top-seed in the AFC.

All this team has is Tom Brady, and that’s just enough to hide the real defects in this team. There’s a reason I call this the “Manning Rule.”

Odds of Winning: 18 to 1

7) New York Giants

Why They Can Win:

Take a coin out of your pocket. This coin represents the streakiness of the New York Giants. Flip the coin. Heads, Giants win.

Why They Can’t Win:

That complete lack of consistency drives me batshit crazy. Flip that coin Again. Tales, Giants lose. Eli Manning is easily my favorite player to watch in the NFL; he is like a poker player who loses a shitload of $50 pots, and just enough $10,000 ones to stay above water.  This time, Eli is all in with two pair.

Odds of Winning: 20 to 1

8 ) Atlanta Falcons

Why They Can Win:

Matt Ryan is an up-and-coming young quarterback who has been compared to a young Peyton Manning, and the Falcons have one of the best receiving groups in the game, which means the Falcons are capable of hanging big numbers on anybody.

Why They Can’t Win:

Ryan lives up to the Manning comparisons.  If he does, expect the Falcons to fold because Manning has always been a terrible “big game” quarterback; Manning’s only Super Bowl win comes from Lovie Smith’s refusal to get Rex Grossman off the field. Eventually, I think Ryan will prove to be a “big-game” quarterback, I’m just not sold this is the year.

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons lack the pass rush or secondary to handle the lethal passing attacks in this postseason group.

Odds of Winning: 25 to 1

9) Houston Texans

Why They Can Win:

There is an inviolable rule about play-off football: never count out a team that can a) run the ball and b) play defense. This is the recipe the Texans used to get this far.

Why They Can’t Win:

The injury to Matt Schaub could be crippling. If Jake Delhomme is the answer, I don’t want to know the question.

Odds of Winning: 30 to 1

10) Cincinnati Bengals

Why They Can Win:

Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are going to be one the best QB/WR combinations in this league for quite some time. Not to mention, the Bengals can play a little defense as well.

Why They Can’t Win:

Because they are the Bengals. If you were going to spin a yarn about a NFL team with a curse, you’d start in Cincinnati. Even if you don’t buy that, winning three road playoff games and a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback is the poker equivalent of hitting an inside straight three times in a row.

Odds of Winning: 35 to 1

11) Detroit Lions

Why They Can Win:

They can’t. Well, I take that back; everybody else’s plane could crash, there could be a plague of locusts, there could be a massive outbreak of food poisoning from the people who do all the NFL food handling.

Why They Can’t Win:

Even though they have Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, I don’t buy this team and I never have.  This is a team that hasn’t even sniffed the playoffs in over a decade, hasn’t won a division title in nearly two, and hasn’t won a league title in over five.

This year’s version loves to act like a high-school junior varsity team. They run their mouths constantly. They have a complete lack of discipline, which comes from the coach on down. They implode the minute they face a challenge. They’ve been pretty good this season, but they have yet to show me they have the stones to make the move from good to great.

Odds of Winning: 50 to 1

12) Denver Broncos

Why They Can Win:

Two words: Tim Tebow.

Why They Can’t Win:

Two words: Tim Tebow.

Odds of Winning: 100 to 1