DISCLAIMER: I’m not going anywhere near the politics on this, largely because a) if you are regular reader of this blog, you already know I’m the founding member of the “Anti-Bullshit” movement, and every political discussion today rapidly devolves into an exercise in crap-spewing from either side, b) the polarizing nature of such arguments completely destroys the ability to objectively examine facts, and c) we’ve managed to kill civil debate in this country, which means I’m not in a hurry to get called names because I don’t necessarily subscribe to your brand of bullshit.

Here’s one thing that turned out to be pure bullshit. If you’ll notice, there’s been a three-year gap between installments in this series. That’s because with the exception of True South and live sporting events, I stopped consuming anything from the World Wide Bottom Feeder ESPN. I mistakenly assumed that the diminished need for this series occurring along with that abstinence was not a coincidence.

Would you like to know what else isn’t a coincidence? The fact that on the other side of this hiatus lies an article on the very same subject. They’re just the latest instances of what has become a de facto annual tradition. Every year since the end of 2016, some NFL team’s star quarterback goes down to an injury, and like the turd that won’t flush, up pops the Colin Kaepernick saga… yet (yawn) again.

As the old saying goes, every cloud has a silver lining. This time, the cloud that is Kaepernick was cloaked in something much better than silver. The last few weeks saw the swallowed-whole consumption of the National Football League (NFL) by the gravitational vortex created by the sheer star-power of Taylor Swift’s eleventy-bajillion platinum records. While football fans everywhere have been little more than annoyed over this, the fact is all those fans collectively owe Taylor Swift a giant debt of gratitude. Once her star power dawned over the NFL’s pop-culture horizon, the power in it’s rays burnt the oxygen right out of the sky under the Kaepernick cloud.

While there’s nothing negative in not hear that story again, it does mean many NFL fans may have missed an important development. Even the most ardent Kaepernick jock-sniffers are giving up the fight. I’m using Mike Floris of Pro Football Talk as the example, but by no means is he alone. The proof is in his own words, written in response to Kaepernick’s begging the New York Jets for a job in the wake of the season-ending injury to Aaron Rodgers.

The fact that so much time has passed since he last played (January 1, 2017) makes it even less likely that anyone will give him a chance.

It has simply been too long. It has been too long in part because the NFL successfully colluded against and blackballed Kaepernick.

Congratulations, NFL. You won. The effort to keep Kaepernick out lasted long enough that the best argument for not giving him a chance is that it has simply been too long since he played.

That’s the end of the story. The NFL wanted him out. The NFL kept him out. And now, it’s far too long for Kaepernick to get back in.

~ Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk

There’s some serious red meat in those four sentences; so much so they really need a patented J-Dub breakdown. That’s because there’s three main points in those four lines, but there are easy to miss…and it’s just as easy to miss their individual truth-to-bullshit ratio.

#1) “The fact that so much time has passed since he last played (January 1, 2017) makes it even less likely that anyone will give him a chance.”

That’s a 100% true statement. The problem was it was also a true statement five years ago. Just going strictly on the passage of time, please tell me the number of NFL players who were successful in rejoining the league after a two-year absence. Keep in mind I’m not talking about guys on injury absences; those guys still get to use team resources and training facilities. I’m only referring to guys who clocked out, cleaned out their lockers and went home…then two years later wanted to reclaim their parking spot.

#2) “The effort to keep Kaepernick out lasted long enough that the best argument for not giving him a chance is that it has simply been too long since he played.”

This one runs about 50% truth-to-bullshit. Florio is using this statement to leverage off the truth of his first; however by continuing to focus on the length of Kaepernick’s time away from the NFL, he is conveniently overlooking what started the end of his days in the NFL. Unlike when Napoleon was sent to the island of Elba, Kaepernick’s exile was self-imposed.

All the Kaepernick flag-wavers gloss over the fact that he was not released by the San Francisco 49ers; instead, in the middle of the 2016 season, he demanded to renegotiate his contract and that it included an “opt-out” clause which could be exercised at the end of the season. Care to guess what he did?

Here’s where we need to take the politics out of this. Forget about the reason why Kaepernick was an NFL “hot potato” for a minute. Imagine you are an NFL general manager who is shopping for a quarterback in 2017. Kaepernick’s resume speaks for itself. Here’s a guy whose high-water mark was a half-a-season in 2012; ever since then his career on the field has been an exercise in the law of diminishing returns.

Here’s the proof. Just look at the comparisons Pro-Football Reference made for Kaepernick. At first, there’s some favorable examples, but those are long gone by the self-imposed end of his playing days.

Kaepernick’s decline as a player culminated in the game in Chicago in 2016 where he got benched (again) because he in three quarters of football, he racked up as many passing yards as sacks (5) against a Bears’ defense which was at the time one of the NFL’s worst.

Boil that all down, and you’re left with a guy who has clearly demonstrated that his best days are behind him, and thanks to the way NFL contracts and the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) with the player’s union work, he’s also expensive. Not to mention, at the beginning of his “exile,” Kaepernick was re-enforcing that with salary demands in the neighborhood of $10 million per year…for a guy who was clearly a back-up quarterback at best. Don’t forget, we aren’t even addressing the baggage he brings on top of this.

In other words, if you show me an NFL general manager who gave this guy $10 million in 2017; in 2018 I’ll show you an ex-GM who is filling out forms at the unemployment office. Doubt that? Even in 2023, The Philadelphia Eagles only gave Marcus Mariota $5 million to hold their clipboard.

#3) “The NFL kept him out.”

This one red-lines the bullshit detector. The NFL did not keep Colin Kaepernick out of the NFL. Colin Kaepernick kept Colin Kaepernick out of the NFL. Forget about the ridiculous salary demands. We can even forget about the fact the NFL offered Kaepernick a workout, and how he jerked the league around at the last minute. Instead, let’s examine his biggest obstacle to a return to the NFL.

For purposes of full disclosure, I was a huge fan of Colin Kaepernick the college quarterback. At the University of Nevada, the guy was flat-out fucking fun to watch. He could outrun most pursuers, and he was a good enough pocket passer to make it work in the Mountain West Conference. Frankly, I was surprised when the San Francisco 49ers drafted him in the 2nd round (36th overall) of the 2011 NFL Draft. He just didn’t feel like an NFL quarterback to me. That’s why I was even more surprised when he flourished in the 49ers’ Super Bowl run in 2012 after the injury to starting quarterback Alex Smith.

But I was far less surprised when the decline started. “Running” quarterbacks who give up the protections of the pocket usually have shorter careers because of the beating they take. This is compounded by the fact that quarterbacks who use their legs to make plays generally do so because they aren’t the most gifted pocket passers.

Then a “vicious cycle” starts. The more beat up they get, the more the “running” quarterbacks have to become “pocket passers.” The less success they have with that, the more they revert to the running game. Then they take more punishment, which forces them back to the pocket, Rinse, lather, repeat.

Granted, there are exceptions to that cycle, but Colin Kaepernick was not one of them. By 2015, the guy couldn’t pass even the most-forgiving “eyeball” test, which is why in 2016 he got benched…twice. The examples proving this phenomenon are numerous. Look at how short Robert Griffin III’s career arc was from Heisman Trophy winner-turned Offensive Rookie of the Year-turned broadcast booth inhabitant. Cam Newton’s path through the NFL is simply a slightly longer version, just without the broadcasting job at the end.

If you still doubt this, just look at what is happening to Dak Prescott now. Here’s another guy who won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and in his eighth season is clearly showing the wear and tear of a guy who relied on his mobility to reach that pinnacle. I said early on that Prescott was not a good pocket passer; years ago I pointed out the Cowboys won-loss record when Prescott threw the ball more than 35 times in a game. You can do the homework yourself and discover that’s still an issue. But what else is becoming an issue is in the three seasons prior to 2023, Prescott only played a full season once (injury factor) and in 2022…a year in which he only played 12 games…still led the league in interceptions (not a great passer factor). One quarter of the way into the 2023 season, Prescott is in the running to defend his “most picks” title.

For a blogger, this is a sad day. Say what you will, but the Kaepernick saga has been a gold mine for content, especially when it comes to pointing out the sheer amount of bullshit the main-stream sports media spews. Since old habits die hard, even jock-sniffer-in-chief Mike Florio admits this story’s tank has finally hit “E,” but he will go to his grave ignoring a series of hard facts in favor of a political narrative that was never true.

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