EDITOR’S NOTE: Boyd Bergquist was the sports director at KETS-TV in East Tree Stump, Nebraska for almost 40 years. Known across the Husker state as the voice of the Boy’s High School Basketball Tournament, Bergquist was a four-time winner of the Marv J. Butz “Golden Cob” Award For Excellence In Nebraska Broadcast Journalism. That background, along with his quick if not cliché-riddled wit and love of single-malt scotch makes Bergquist a perfect fit to be our “Question” guy.
Like the song says, Camptown Race Track might be five miles long, but that’s nothing compared to 162 games. Well, now that it’s behind us, we can get down to the real nitty-gritty…post-season play. But before we get to October baseball, let’s let’s recap where we’ve been.
If you recall, I’m not about the usual “power ranking” stuff. Instead, I started this season by breaking down all 30 major league squads into six easy-to-understand groups based on what I thought these teams could realistically expect in 2024. Those original six categories were as follows.
- Ready To Win Right Now: These are teams which are ready to climb the mountain right now…no ifs, ands or buts.
- There’s Just One Thing Missing: Did you ever almost complete a jigsaw puzzle, but the three pieces you have remaining don’t fit the holes you have left? Welcome to the stories of these teams.
- Need Some Things To Go Their Way: Welcome to a collection of clubs who almost have the goods to win on their own; but anything is possible if they get more than one “lucky break.”
- At Least They Don’t Suck: Do I really need to explain this one?
- Why Wait For Next Year? One way or another, these teams need to make a decision about the future.
- It’s Going To Be A Long Summer: Everybody has hope on Opening Day, but some lose it far faster than others.
Once we got to Memorial Day, we had a bit of a glitch, so we had to combine that milepost with Independence Day. Despite that, we still had six new categories at the “far turn” which again should be fairly self-explanatory.
- Just As We Expected: Teams performing just as expected.
- So Far, So Good: Teams which are very much in the thick of the race at this point.
- Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left: Read this as teams potentially over-achieving.
- It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet: This is for teams who may have stumbled out of the gate, but still have plenty of time
- Better Figure It Out Quick: A category for teams whose problems are severe, despite the fact there a lot of race left.
- It’s Not Too Early To Say It’s Over: Even at this juncture, it’s a safe bet these teams are finished.
Independence Day roughly marks the half-way point which the time to separate everybody into the only two categories that matter; pretenders and contenders.
American League
National League
Some teams helped themselves at the deadline, and some teams didn’t; you can see a breakdown of that here. Labor Day is the marker for heading into the homestretch…where the horse-racing analogy really kicks in. But as we head toward October, it’s time to look at who can get to the Winner’s Circle, and who is going to spit the bit.
All odds are from Bet365.com
The Also-Rans
Spit the Bit
Minnesota Twins
- Original Rating: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet – Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: Zero (+2200 on Labor Day)
Byron Buxton played in 100 games for the first time since 2017. He also notched his highest OPS since 2021…and the Twins wasted both…dramatically.
Set the Wayback Machine for August 17th. The Twins were 70-53 and enjoying a five-game buffer from the pack in the American League wild card race. But the clouds were starting to form on the horizon. On September 1st, Minnesota was still sitting on a 4½-game cushion despite having just dropped 9 of their last 12. Heading into Sunday, The Twins were 9-17 in September and are officially spectators for October.
The offense disappeared, the pitching staff reverted to a middlin’-to-shitty rotation and an implosion-prone bullpen, all symptoms of a team shopworn from always having to overcome injuries. That’s the cloud which promises to linger.
Injuries will plague this team so long as Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton remain on the roster. Even if Buxton somehow stays healthy enough to replicate 2024, Minnesota is learning the hard way about the concerns the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets had over Carlos Correa. As for Lewis, let’s just say his injury history is blog-worthy.
Boston Red Sox
- Original Rating: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: So Far, So Good – Pretender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: Zero (+6600 on Labor Day)
Don’t look now, but the Red Sox have missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons and in five of the last six. However, the “plan” for 2025 is to have their “premier” prospects (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, and Kyle Teelmake) all make their major league debuts. Too bad none of them are pitchers. Boston’s rotation and bullpen are both examples of A) not spending enough money B) not spending it on the right guys or C) all of the above.
Just Ran Out of Gas:
To mix racing metaphors, these are the horses whose thanks hit “E” just short of the money.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Original Rating: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Better Figure It Out Quick – Contender/Sell
- Odds To : Win World Series: +3000 (-1400 since Labor Day)
In July, the Arizona Diamondbacks were riding high as one of the best teams in baseball. That months was the Snakes go 17-8, and they followed that with an 18-9 mark in August. But down the stretch, the pitching dissolved and Arizona faded in the desert sun.
Chicago Cubs
- Original Rating: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet – Pretender/Sell
- Odds To Win The World Series: Zero (+8000 on Labor Day)
The Chicago Cubs have a bright future, even if it maybe short-lived. The North-Siders were one of the 10 winningest teams in the season’s final two months (31-20). That wasn’t enough to make for an abysmal May rendering 2024 as tlittle more than a “cut and paste” of 2023.
But the keys to Chicago’s 2025 lie in the second half of 2024. Despite trade-deadline acquisition Isaac Paredes being a complete non-factor, they have an established core of “locked-down” players and the financial flexibility to make the “big-time” free-agent signing they desperately need.
The Cubs have ostensibly already started Spring Training 2025 with a bunch of September call-ups. However, the future may have an expiration date of 2026, because the aforementioned “core” of the Cubs just got a year older; several turned 30 this season. In other words, there some decision looming in the near future.
Still In The Race
Got A Chip And A Chair:
This category is from the world of poker; it’s all about anything is possible as long as you’re playing at the “big boy” table. No matter what you may think about these teams, they are playing in October…which means anything could happen.
Detroit Tigers
- Original Rating: Why Wait For Next Year?
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot Of Season Left – Pretender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +2800 (-12,200 since Labor Day)
Like the Cubs, the Detroit Tigers also have a bright future, but a big part of it may be right now. Easily the hottest team entering October, the Tigers had won 14 of 18 heading into the season’s final Sunday. Tarik Skubal is not only the presumptive Cy Young winner in the AL heading into that same Sunday with 18 wins and a 2.39 ERA, he’s just one reason why the odds on Detroit to win the World Series plummeted +15,000 to +2800. But the rest of the Tiger arm has posted a team ERA of 2.81 since August 1st. Sleep on this team at your own risk.
Kansas City Royals
- Original Rating: It’s Going To Be A Long Summer
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot Of Season Left – Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +3000 (+200 since Labor Day)
Charles Dickens published A Tale Of Two Cities in 1859, and while there are two Kansas Citys, it only takes one to give us a tale of two teams. The first incarnation of the Royals finished the first two months of the season with a 35-24 mark. But since June 1st, they gone 50-52. While Bobby Witt, Jr. is emerging as a “real deal” superstar, it was the loss of 1B Vinnie Pasquantino at the end of August that saw this team go from leading the league with a team average of .294 with runners in scoring position to dead last with a mark under .200.
Atlanta Braves
- Original Rating: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Better Figure It Out Quick – Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win The World Series: +2500 (+1100 since Labor Day)
To tell the story of the 2024 Atlanta Braves is to tell a tale of injuries, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Ozziew Albies, and Ronald Acuña Jr all missed significant time if not having seasons ended early. Even presumptive Cy Young winner was a scratch for Game Two of that Monday double-header with the entire season on the line.
However, the Braves managed to cobble together a rotation which was among the league leaders in quality starts. Spencer Schwellenbach was a big part of that down the stretch…not bad for a guy who started the season in High-A ball.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Original Rating: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot Of Season Left – Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +2000 (+800 since Labor Day)
The Milwaukee Brewers…the same old mediocre-ass Brewers. There’s a reason why that graphic exists, and there’s’ a reason why I’ll keep using it until this team makes a more than a “one and done” appearance in October. This isn’t likely to be the year because the brew formula in Milwaukee hasn’t changed; two parts pitching just good enough, two parts just enough offense to gin up 90 wins in said shitty division, and one part first-round play-off exit.
It Could Happen
New York Mets
- Original Rating: Why Wait For Next Year?
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet – Pretenders/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +2500 (-500 since Labor Day)
1969 brought us the “Miracle Mets.” 2024 has given us the “Mercurial Mets.” This team started this season with most believing they were a fringe contender at best. Then they cratered to the point everybody gave them up for dead. But since July 1, the New York Mets have been among baseball’s best posting a 47-28 record. The pitching is thin, but getting Francisco Lindor back could be the dreaded “X Factor.” He certainly made a difference in that clinching Monday win in Atlanta.
This is really the post-season equivalent of “Need Some Things To Go Their Way.” The impact of the ball bouncing your way gets magnified in a play-off series.
Houston Astros
- Original Rating: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Better Figure It Out Quick – Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1000 (+200 since Labor Day)
Historically, taking the Astros deep into the post-season would be a fairly safe bet. But Yordan Alvarez and his lingering knee issues and Justin Verlander’s inconsistency since returning from his own injury are causes for concern.
Baltimore Orioles
- Original Rating: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Just As We Expected – Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +900
Short of the Braves, nobody had more tough luck on the injury front than Baltimore. Just in time for October the O’s are getting back Zach Eflin (shoulder), Ramon Urias (ankle), Heston Kjerstad (concussion), Jacob Webb (elbow), Ryan Mountcastle (wrist), Danny Coulombe (elbow) and Jordan Westburg (hand). But they are still waiting for the return of Grayson Rodríguez, who would be their likely Game 3 starter behind Eflin and Corbin Burnes.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Original Rating: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Just As We Expected – Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win The World Series: +300 (-25 since Labor Day)
In a theme that’s going to be echoed when we get to the Yankess, everybody loves the Dodgers because of their big bats. Face, Ohtani and Betts are as good a 1-2 combination as one could want. But Freedie Freeman is on crutches and the rotation heading into October is likely to consist of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, and rookie Landon Knack. All four of those guys come with warning flags and the Dodgers bullpen is the definition of suspect. I haven’t bought the Dodgers all year long, and I still don’t.
The Real Deal
This section should be self-explanatory. These are the horses with the inside rail running neck-in-neck to the wire.
New York Yankees
- Original Rating: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Just As We Expected – Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +375 (-275 since Labor Day)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are rock stars in the Bronx, Just like the Dodgers, those bats are the key to the Yankees future…because just like the Dodgers, the Yankees are thin on pitching. Granted, the rotation and the bullpen have both stepped up down the stretch, but the Pinstripes’ defense capabilities are close being officially labeled a “liability.”
In the last piece, I mentioned how slump-prime Judge and Soto can be. But if history is any indicator, there’s another big red flag in play here. Aaron Judge is the antithesis of “Mr. October.” In his past three trips to the play-offs, Judge has gone 10-for-70 (.143) with 5 home runs, 6 walks, and 25 strikeouts. The most recent Yankee trip to October was the worst for Judge. 2022 saw the Yankee captain notch a 5-for-36 mark with 15 strikeouts over 9 games. That includes his 1-for-16 disappearing act in the ALCS against the Astros, which led to a guy who just a 60+ homer season being booed in Yankee Stadium.
Cleveland Guardians
- Original Rating: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot Of Season Left – Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1100 (-500 since Labor Day)
Without Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan, and James Karinchak, at first glance the Cleveland Guardians might look a bit thin on pitching. Looks can be deceiving. Emmanuel Clase is in the conversation for the league’s best closer, and he’s at the back end of arguably the league’s best bullpen. While it’s true that bullpen is carrying a mediocre-at-best rotation, this team still found a way to 90+ wins and a 1st-round bye,
That came courtesy of Jose Ramirez, who came into Sunday a dinger short of being a 40-40 season and is already Josh Naylor’s partner in the 100-RBI club. Steven Kwan is an All-Star and might just have a batting title in his future first half. Also, if rookie skipper Stephen Vogt isn’t the AL Manager of the Year, the award will be invalid.
San Diego Padres
- Original Rating: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Better Figure It Out Quick – Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +1200 (-500 since Labor Day)
Three simple facts.
- The Padres had the best record (43-19) in the game after the All-Star break.
- The Padres are in the top third in MLB in rotation ERA, bullpen EREA, and lineup OPS, and they are all getting hot now.
- The Padres did a nice job adding at the trade deadline and getting key pieces like Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Fernando Tatis, Jr. back from the injured list only helps.
Top that off with the feeling that the passing of beloved, free-spending owner Peter Seidler might be bringing an end to the “salad days” in San Diegp…well, this just might be their “Jake Taylor” moment.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Original Rating: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memoria-Dependence Day Rating: Just As We Expected – Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +350 (-100 since Labor Day)
The reports of the demise of the Phillies are premature. Yeah, I know this team had an extended malaise after the London Series, but they came into Sunday with a 14-11 mark in September. But what’s really telling is their record against the other teams on this list
- vs. Dodgers: 5-1 .833
- vs. Padres: 5-1 .833
- vs. Yankees: 5-1 .833
- vs. Brewers: 4-2 .667
- vs. Astros: 2-1 .667
- vs. Royals: 2-1 .667
- vs. Tigers: 2-1 .667
- vs. Mets 7-6 .538
- vs. Braves: 6-7 .461
- vs. Diamondbacks: 3-4 .429
- vs. Orioles: 1-2 .333
Across the entire season, the Phillies are 41-27 for a .610 winning percentage against other the other teams who made it to the post-season. By the way, that series against the Orioles and one against the Diamondbacks came in the first two weeks after that Series in London against the Mets.
Got a question for our 70’s TY Sports Anchor? Got your own take? Nothing is “off-limits,” and no take is “too hot.” The only questions or comments Boyd Bergquist can’t handle are the one you don’t send!
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