EDITOR’S NOTE: Boyd Bergquist was the sports director at KETS-TV in East Tree Stump, Nebraska for almost 40 years. Known across the Husker state as the voice of the Boy’s High School Basketball Tournament, Bergquist was a four-time winner of the Marv J. Butz “Golden Cob” Award For Excellence In Nebraska Broadcast Journalism. That background, along with his quick if not cliché-riddled wit and love of single-malt scotch makes Bergquist a perfect fit to be our “sports” guy.
Like the song says, Camptown Race Track might be five miles long, but that’s nothing compared to 162 games. As we find ourselves past the hype of the first week of football, now we can focus on the home stretch of this horse race. And like a horse race, I break the baseball season down into four parts; the last obviously being the run for the roses.
But before we get down to the home stretch, let’s recap where we’ve been. If you recall, I’m not about the usual “power ranking” stuff. Instead, I started this season by breaking down all 30 major league squads into six easy-to-understand groups based on what I thought these teams could realistically expect in 2025. Those original six categories were as follows.
- Ready To Win Right Now: These are teams which are ready to climb the mountain right now…no ifs, ands or buts.
- There’s Just One Thing Missing: Did you ever almost complete a jigsaw puzzle, but the three pieces you have remaining don’t fit the holes you have left? Welcome to the stories of these teams.
- Need Some Things To Go Their Way: Welcome to a collection of clubs who almost have the goods to win on their own; but anything is possible if they get more than one “lucky break.”
- At Least They Don’t Suck: Do I really need to explain this one?
- Why Wait For Next Year? One way or another, these teams need to make a decision about the future.
- It’s Going To Be A Long Summer: Everybody has hope on Opening Day, but some lose it far faster than others.
Once we got to Memorial Day, I had six new categories at the “far turn.” which again should be fairly self-explanatory.
- Just As We Expected: Teams performing just as expected.
- So Far, So Good: Teams which are very much in the thick of the race at this point.
- Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left: Read this as teams potentially over-achieving.
- It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet: This is for teams who may have stumbled out of the gate, but still have plenty of time
- Better Figure It Out Quick: A category for teams whose problems are severe, despite the fact there a lot of race left.
- It’s Not Too Early To Say It’s Over: Even at this juncture, it’s a safe bet these teams are finished.
Independence Day roughly marks the half-way point which the time to separate everybody into the only two categories that matter; pretenders and contenders.
American League Contenders
National League Contenders
Some teams helped themselves at the deadline, and some didn’t. But as we head toward October, there’s really no doubting this race has flipped in the last few weeks. Now, it’s time to look at who can get to the Winner’s Circle, and who is going to spit the bit.
October Derby Post Positions
16) San Francisco Giants
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +15000
The Giants are the reason why the term “mathematically eliminated” exists. We all know there’s almost no way the G-Men are going to see October, but anything is still technically possible. The Dodgers keep showing signs that a complete implosion isn’t out of the question, and the Giants have a remaining schedule softer than a cloud made of kitten fur.
15) Cleveland Guardians
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +20000
The offensively-challenged Guardians traded a guy like Josh Naylor, even though he was coming off a 31 HR, 108 RBI season, and yet they still have an outside shot at the play-offs…even if they don’t deserve it.
14) New York Mets
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +1400
Once again, the April Mets were one of the best teams in the game. But for a two-month period from June 13th to August 13th, they were one of the worst. The Mets are collectively schizophrenic, which makes facing them in a play-off series could be like fighting the insane guy who lives on the subway platform.
But it also means I get to use that Gregg Giannotti meme…again.
13) Texas Rangers
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +4500
A recent 8-1 stretch vaulted the Rangers back into wild-card contention, but now they are in the midst of a run facing the Brewers, Mets, and the Astros twice. That’s likely going to determine their season.
12) Kansas City Royals
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Pretender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +10000
Believe it or not, a line-up featuring formidable bats like Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquatino, and Bobby Witt, Jr., got a huge boost with the arrival of Mike Yastrzemski from San Francisco. Since hitting town, Yaz hit to the tune of a .976 OPS with 8 doubles and 7 home runs in his first month with the Royals. But it does have a distinct “day late, dollar short” feel.
11) Chicago Cubs
- Original Rating: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: Just As I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win The World Series: +1400
A while back, I said the Dodgers’ and the Cubs’ offenses bore a huge statistical resemblance. Well, they both went cold about the same time, but in Chicago’s case it’s likely doomed them to the wild card. But on the bump, rookie Cade Horton is proving to be a bright spot posting a 5-1 record over 30 innings with a 1.20 ERA in six starts in August.
10) Seattle Mariners
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1600
Cal Raleigh is having a season for the record books. But the M’s still struggle to win on the road, which makes it convenient that 13 of their final 19 games are at home.
9) Milwaukee Brewers
- Original Category: Why Wait Until Next Year?
- Memorial Day Category: Better Figure It Out Quick
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +700
The poster chidden for “figuring it out,” The Brew Crew went 21-9 in August on their way to the best record in the bigs, and they are still putting distance between themselves and the Cubs. However, it remains the official position of Dubsism that we are not going to believe in this team until they win a play-off series.
8 ) Boston Red Sox
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: So Far, So Good
- All-Star Break Rating: Pretender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1700
The proof was in the pudding; all you have to do is look at the respective directions of the Giants and the Red Sox after the Rafael Devers trade. San Francisco ate a $300 million contract because they are getting panicky abut not having a 30-HR guy since Barry Bonds; they went from first place to “mathematically eliminated.” Meanwhile, since the All-Star break, the BoSox went from 8 games above .500 to 16.
7) New York Yankees
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: Just As We Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +900
The Yankees went 19-9 in May. It took a recent 7-game winning streak to get them back to the .500 neighborhood since then. They are a s home-run dependent as they’ve ever been, and we’ve seen so many Octobers that now we know how that usually ends. It’s a legitimate question to ask if they can stay out of 3rd place in the AL East?
6) San Diego Padres
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just Like I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1300
For a team nudging up on 80 wins, the team feels very .500-ish to me, except when they get recent schedule breaks like two series with the Rockies and one with Baltimore. But even mediocre-at-heart teams can still be dangerous in a series. But the Friars aren’t schizophrenic like the Mets; they’re just dramatic enough to keep you coming back.
5) Houston Astros
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1100
Does Houston have a problem? Despite being in first place (for now) staying ahead of the Mariners, the Astro offense has sputtered to being ranked 23rd in the majors.
4) Los Angeles Dodgers
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: So Far, So Good
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +300
As of this writing, the Dodgers now hold a 2-game lead over the Padres. From here, Los Angeles has series with contenders Philadelphia and Seattle, and two with hated-rival San Francisco. Can they stay in front?
3) Toronto Blue Jays
- Original Category: Why Wait Until Next Year?
- Memorial Day Category: Better Figure It Out Quick
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +850
Closer Jeff Hoffman has single-handedly introduced instability into the Blue Jays’ bullpen. He just had a run where he allowed 10 hits and eight earned runs in 4.1 innings, topping that off with a pair of blown saves and a loss.
2) Philadelphia Phillies
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just As We Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +800
The Phillies are on cruise control, and they are playing with “house” money in terms of winning the NL East and landing a first-round play-off bye. That’s why they can take the gamble on a reclamation project like Walker Buehler.
1) Detroit Tigers
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just As We Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +900
The Tigers were the first American League team to reach 80, and they should cruise past 90 behind buzzsaw Tarik Skubal who as of his last start leads all qualified AL starters in ERA (2.18), WHIP (0.87), strikeouts (216), and innings pitched (173.0).
Next stop: Play-off Previews!
Got a question for our 70’s TY Sports Anchor? Got your own take? Nothing is “off-limits,” and no take is “too hot.” The only questions or comments Boyd Bergquist can’t handle are the one you don’t send!
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