EDITOR’S NOTE: Boyd Bergquist was the sports director at KETS-TV in East Tree Stump, Nebraska for almost 40 years. Known across the Husker state as the voice of the Boy’s High School Basketball Tournament, Bergquist was a four-time winner of the Marv J. Butz “Golden Cob” Award For Excellence In Nebraska Broadcast Journalism. That background, along with his quick if not cliché-riddled wit and love of single-malt scotch makes Bergquist a perfect fit to be our “sports” guy.
Like the song says, Camptown Race Track might be five miles long, but that’s nothing compared to 162 games. As we find ourselves headed into the post-season, it’s time to see who can really win this thing. stretch of this horse race. And like a horse race, I break the baseball season down into four parts; the last obviously being the run for the roses.
But before we get down to the “run for the roses,” let’s recap where we’ve been. If you recall, I’m not about the usual “power ranking” stuff. Instead, I started this season by breaking down all 30 major league squads into six easy-to-understand groups based on what I thought these teams could realistically expect in 2025. Those original six categories were as follows.
- Ready To Win Right Now: These are teams which are ready to climb the mountain right now…no ifs, ands or buts.
- There’s Just One Thing Missing: Did you ever almost complete a jigsaw puzzle, but the three pieces you have remaining don’t fit the holes you have left? Welcome to the stories of these teams.
- Need Some Things To Go Their Way: Welcome to a collection of clubs who almost have the goods to win on their own; but anything is possible if they get more than one “lucky break.”
- At Least They Don’t Suck: Do I really need to explain this one?
- Why Wait For Next Year? One way or another, these teams need to make a decision about the future.
- It’s Going To Be A Long Summer: Everybody has hope on Opening Day, but some lose it far faster than others.
Once we got to Memorial Day, I had six new categories at the “far turn.” which again should be fairly self-explanatory.
- Just As We Expected: Teams performing just as expected.
- So Far, So Good: Teams which are very much in the thick of the race at this point.
- Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left: Read this as teams potentially over-achieving.
- It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet: This is for teams who may have stumbled out of the gate, but still have plenty of time
- Better Figure It Out Quick: A category for teams whose problems are severe, despite the fact there a lot of race left.
- It’s Not Too Early To Say It’s Over: Even at this juncture, it’s a safe bet these teams are finished.
Independence Day roughly marks the half-way point which the time to separate everybody into the only two categories that matter; pretenders and contenders.
American League Contenders
National League Contenders
The Also-Rans
Now, were down to those who came up short, who is actually in the play-offs, and who can actually go all the way. We originally spotted sixteen teams running in the deciding part of this race. Only 12 make the post-season, and only 1 can win it all. That means our last set of categories for 2025.
Spit the Bit
These are the teams that decided they didn’t want to run anymore.
Houston Astros
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
The Astros simply couldn’t muster wins when they needed them. Sure, losing bats like Yordan Alvarez and Isaac Paredes down the stretch didn’t help, but there’s no denying Houston didn’t get clutch performances from guys like Carlos Correa and Jeremy Pena when they needed them.
San Francisco Giants
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
It’s time for the Giants to address their offensive malaise. Yeah, we all know San Francisco hasnt had a 30-homer guy since Barry Bonds, but can anybody explain why the Giants haven’t embraced the new emphasis on the running game, especially in that cavernous wind tunnel they call a ballpark? If you can’t slug runs, you’ve got to “manufacture” them. There isn’t enough pitching and defense not to do at least one.
New York Mets
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
The Mets had the best record in baseball on June 13. Since then, they’ve had one of the worst. They spent over $400 million to build a team that couldn’t stay out of its own way. Look for the implosion of this team to start in earnest shortly.
Just Ran Out of Gas
To mix racing metaphors, these are the horses whose tanks hit “E” just short of the money.
Kansas City Royals
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Pretender/Buy
The Royals define the term “missed it by that much.” At one point recently, Kansas City was only a single game out of a wild-card spot. This is when they dropped six of their next seven, which mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Texas Rangers
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
With less than a dozen games to go, the Rangers had a shot at a playoff slot, if not a crack at the AL West title. But their two-season long plague of offensive inconsistency caught up to Texas yet again.
Still In The Race
Got A Chip And A Chair
This category is from the world of poker; it’s all about anything is possible as long as you’re playing at the “big boy” table. No matter what you may think about these teams, they are playing in October…which means anything could happen.
Detroit Tigers
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just As We Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +2000
The Wild Card play-off format is what keeps the Tigers from being listed among the epic collapses of all time. That reprieve may be temporary if the Motor City Kitties don’t advance beyond the first round. This team had the inside rail to a first-round bye with a commanding 14-game lead in the AL Central in July which dropped to 11.5 games toward the end of August. Even in the middle of September, Detroit was still 9.5 games in front of Cleveland. Three weeks later, the Tigers limped into the play-offs, but in any event, this has been a remarkable fade.
Cincinnati Reds
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: So Far, So Good
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +3300
We didn’t even have the Reds rated in out Homestretch Edition. That because they really weren’t in the picture until a four-game sweep of the Cubs in the season’s penultimate weekend vaulted the Reds back into the race. Really, this is a slightly-above average team which has been unusually hot at the plate…at just the right time.
Boston Red Sox
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: So Far, So Good
- All-Star Break Rating: Pretender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1800
Boston has three starting pitchers – Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito – who give this team a shot in any series. But the offense lacks without rookie sensation Roman Anthony.
Chicago Cubs
- Original Rating: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: Just As I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win The World Series: +1400
What does it tell you about the South-Siders that they saved their longest losing streak of the season for the week heading into the play-offs? The Cubs may be one of the best defensive teams in the game, and getting Kyle Tucker back helps both the leather and the bats. However, scoring will be a priority given the injury to Cade Horton and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s disappearance.
It Could Happen
There’s an old saying about anything is possible once you make it into the race. So, who is to say it couldn’t?
Cleveland Guardians
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +2000
The problem with hot streaks is you never know when they’re going to end. Cleveland had a stretch in September in which they won 17 of 19, which played a huge role in their erasure of Detroit’s 11-game lead. Since then, the Guardians’ pitching staff holds a major league-best 1.58 ERA. But if the offense reverts to it’s anemic pre-September form, October will be short on the shores of Lake Erie.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Original Category: Why Wait Until Next Year?
- Memorial Day Category: Better Figure It Out Quick
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +800
Why they aren’t the “Real Deal:” Will the real Brewers please stand up?
The injury situation in Milwaukee was bad enough before Brandon Woodruff went on the injured list. With Trevor Megill, Logan Henderson, and D.L. Hall also on the shelf, the Brewers need the first-round bye for a shot at getting healthy. Even then, who knows what their roster will look like come the division series.
Not to mention, there’s our standing order here at Dubsism that we do not believe in this team until they win a play-off series.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: So Far, So Good
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +475
Why they aren’t the “Real Deal:” The bullpen. Shohei Ohtani and the starters the Dodgers can keep healthy have all pitched well, but the bullpen is a tire with a roofing nail through it. Today, winning playoff baseball relies heavily on the relievers, and the Dodgers simply can’t do that.
New York Yankees
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: Just As We Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +700
Why they aren’t the “Real Deal:” Pitching in general. The front end of the rotation consists of Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. After that, it becomes a game of “Who do you trust?” The contestants are Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, and Will Warren. The bullpen is stocked with four closers with proven track records, but David Bednar, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, and Camilo Doval have all been varying degrees of inconsistent. Pick your poison.
The Real Deal
This section should be self-explanatory. These are the horses with the inside rail running neck-in-neck to the wire.
San Diego Padres
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just Like I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1400
The problem with this spot is there are four teams that could be considered here, but as I’ve argued they all have major flaws which are being hidden by various forms of window dressing. What separates the Padres from the Brewers, Dodgers, and Yankees is their flaw is easier to hide. The Padres starting rotation is the definition of inconsistent, but that is offset by the bullpen chock full of 100-mph arms.
Seattle Mariners
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +500
The Mariners became a trendy pick once the casual fan heard about Cal Raleigh and his 60 tanks this season, but Seattle comes into October as much of a contender as anybody. Despite the injury to Brian Woo, the M’s still sport a rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Luis Castillo. Tack on Seattle’s dominant bullpen led by lights-out closer Andres Munoz, and it’s very possible this team could be the last one standing.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Original Category: Why Wait Until Next Year?
- Memorial Day Category: Better Figure It Out Quick
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +700
The Blue Jays offense…as potent as it can be…has this odd habit of disappearing at really bad times. For example, Toronto got outscored 28-3 in a recent four-game losing streak while they were trying to stay in front of the Yankees. But now that they’ve avoided the Wild Card round, perhaps they can get Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt healthy for a divisional series. Because this team can win it all…if the bats don’t pull anymore disappearing acts.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just As We Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +425
Usually a team losing an ace like Zack Wheeler is as knock-out punch for any World Series hopes, but the Phillies’ rotation remains a force with Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and the mercurial Ranger Suarez. From the offensive side, here’s a lineup anchored by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper which is only going to get better with the returns of Alec Bohm and Trea Turner.
The Prediction
Got a question for our 70’s TY Sports Anchor? Got your own take? Nothing is “off-limits,” and no take is “too hot.” The only questions or comments Boyd Bergquist can’t handle are the one you don’t send!
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