Let’s start with my original playoff predictions:

Pittsburgh Steelers

Why They Can Win:

The “Big Ben” episode from the beginning of the season seems to be ancient history, and this team is very quietly playing like the elite team they are, even if they are on the “Rodney Dangerfield” list for not getting any respect.

Why They Can’t Win:

This team can win without Ben Roethlisberger. This team can win without a lot of people; Troy Polamalu isn’t one of them. The strength of this team is its defense, and Polamalu is the backbone of the entire unti. Without him, the Steelers become the Aluminumers.

Odds of Winning: 3 to 1

Green Bay Packers

Why They Can Win:

In short,  three reasons: Aaron Rodgers, who once he wins his first playoff game may just win three more, a superb vertical passing game, and a play-making ball-hawk defense.

Why They Can’t Win:

In what is clearly becoming a theme here, the Packers may be the purest example of the “can’t really run” team. It’s like everybody suddenly thought the “Dan Marino” model was the way to go. It’s like everybody forgot how many championships Marino won.

Odds of Winning: 8 to 1

Now that we are down to a head-to-head matchup, there are three categories to analyze.

1) What Vegas Thinks

Anybody who loves to bet knows professional gamblers pay attention to five key categories:

• Yards Rushing per Game –Steelers 120.1, Packers 103.2
• Yards Rushing Allowed Per Game – Steelers 61.6, Packers  107.7
• Points Scored Per Game – Packers 25.2, Steelers 23.9
• Points Allowed Per Game – Steelers 15.3, Packers 15.3
• Ratio of Points Scored to Points Allowed – Steelers 1.68, Packers 1.56

Advantage: Steelers

2) The On-the-Field Matchups

• The Battle of the Trenches

This comes down to a Steeler offensive line which let Ben Roethlisberger get sacked 43 times, not to mention how many times he’s been hit. That shot that busted his beak wasn’t a sack, and it wasn’t the only time he’s taken a shot to the head. Ben’s protection doesn’t figure to be any better with Maurkice Pouncey removed from that line. Granted, Pittsburgh has some some cold killers on the defensive side, but the Packers O-line isn’t dinged up and Aaron Rodgers can prove to be quite elusive.

• The Battle of the Quarterbacks

Rodgers and Roethlisberger…sounds lees like two elite quarterbacks and more like a 19th-century songwriting team.  Honestly, these guys are complete opposites who at the end of the day both can extend plays. The difference is that Rodgers has quick-strike capabilities; if the Packers get a two-touchdown lead any point, the game is over. The Steelers simply don’t have the ability to play catch-up, and they can’t win a shootout. Ultimately, this will be one of those games where you tell me the score, and I will tell you the winner. If the final score ends up being 12-10, that a Steeler victory; whereas if it ends at 31-17, that means the title went back to Titletown.

• The Battle of the Non-Over-Rated Bullshit

The Steelers don’t throw the ball particularly well; the Packers don’t run the ball particularly well. Both sides have big-time defenses, big-time quarterbacks, and guys with hair and beards that are way past “out of control.” This game is evenly matched; it will come down to which team doesn’t shoot itself in the foot and capitalizes on opportunities. The Steelers’ turnover differential was +17; the Packers’ +10. Meanwhile the Packers get into the end zone 63.08% of the time when entering the “red zone,” and 75 % of the time during the playoffs; while the Steelers have matched that in the playoffs, they still only managed touchdowns on only 51.72% of their trips inside the 20, and that number drops to 45% away from Heinz Field.

Advantage: Packers

3) A Comparison of the Cities

Really, comparing Green Bay to Pittsburgh is like comparing a green turd to a brown one. The bucolic land of beer and cheese against a “Rust Belt” city where people put fries and slaw on their sandwiches. A small, reasonably clean midwestern town of 100,000 against a decaying metropolitan miasma of 2.5 million. The “frozen tundra;” the hallowed ground of the NFL against a stadium named for ketchup.

Advantage: Packers