Boyd Bergquist’s 2024 Big-Time Baseball Breakdown

EDITOR’S NOTE: Boyd Bergquist was the sports director at KETS-TV in East Tree Stump, Nebraska for almost 40 years.  Known across the Husker state as the voice of the Boy’s High School Basketball Tournament, Bergquist was a four-time winner of the Marv J. Butz “Golden Cob” Award For Excellence In Nebraska Broadcast Journalism. That background, along with his quick if not cliché-riddled wit and love of single-malt scotch makes Bergquist a perfect fit to be our “Question” guy, but today, he’s here to dish up a preview of the upcoming baseball season.

Baseball season is back! Now that the calendar has finally flipped to Opening Day, we finally get a look at what these teams will be working with for the 2024 campaign.  That’s because this isn’t Spring Training anymore; this is the real deal. That begs the question…who the heck knows who is any good?

Frankly, I think I do! But I’m not into the usual “power ranking” stuff.  Instead, I’ve broken down all 30 major league squads into six easy-to-understand groups based on what these teams can realistically expect in 2024.

Ready to Win Right Now

These are teams ready to pop the corks this year…no ifs, ands or buts.

1) Atlanta Braves:

Atlanta played the off-season as if they went to Vegas. They are betting hard that both Chris Sale and Jared Kelenic can return to their former forms. Even if those bets bust, the Braves still have a big enough chip stack to remains the favorite to win the National League pennant.

2) Houston Astros:

The bad news: the window for the Astros to be a “championship” team is closing…age, free agency; name the usual suspect of your choosing. The good news: This team has won at least 90 games in every season since 2017 (except 2020 obviously) and have notched 100 wins in four of the last seven seasons. That’s not changing this year.

3) Baltimore Orioles:

This team is built around “Gen-Z” talent which took the O’s from 100 losses to 100 wins in three years. Even with a thin pitching staff, this team still figures to be in the hunt for the AL East Crown. So sorry, no container ship/bridge collapse jokes here.

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4) Arizona Diamondbacks:

The question on this team is so obvious; let’s all say it together: Was 2023 a fluke? The answer is no. Not only did this team keep it’s 2023 core together, it bolstered the middle of the lineup with Eugenio Suarez, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk. As far as the pitching goes, the Snakes gave a major upgrade to the starting rotation by adding Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery. This team is why you just can’t pencil in the dodgers in the NL West.

5) Los Angeles Dodgers:

OK, so the whole Shohei Ohtani thing is officially the “turd in the punchbowl” nobody wants to discuss. Honestly, that just hides the fact the Dodgers are spending the better part of a billion dollars on pitchers who aren’t going to pitch in 2024…not to mention what they had to cough up in the non-disclosed Trevor Bauer settlement. Boil it all down and despite the Dodgers’ loaded nature, this team is yet again a soap opera laden with distractions, which is why it took a pandemic to get this franchise it’s only World Series title in the last four decades.

There’s Just One Thing Missing

Did you ever almost complete a jigsaw puzzle, but the three pieces you have remaining don’t fit the holes you have left? Welcome to the stories of these teams…

1) New York Yankees:

The Yankees and the Orioles really have the same problem; they are thin on starting pitching. However, the wild card which may send the Pinstripes to an AL Wild Card is how long their injured list gets.

2) Texas Rangers:

Unlike their opponents in last year’s “Fall Classic,” the 2023 Texas Rangers may very been a fluke. Jordan Montgomery is gone, Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer will be splitting time in an MRI machine…that is when Corey Seager isn’t using it. But there’s no better manager in the game than Bruce “Don’t Call Me Lou Brown” Bochy is the best manage in the game and Texas still has tons of young talent…so place your bets, gang…

3) Toronto Blue Jays:

Every year, I think this team can finally get over the hump. Every year, this team pulls their “Padres of the North” routine offering the textbook definition of “underperform.” Here’s a line-up dripping with All-Stars and couldn’t crack the top ten in OPS in 2023. But this year, the Blue Jays are on notice. 2024 is “prove it” time; show me you can do something other than disappoint.

4) Philadelphia Phillies:

There’s a reason why there’s a U.S. Mint in Philadelphia. With Zach Wheeler’s new deal, check out the Phils total payroll for 2024 and tell me it’s not appropriate to be printing money in the City of Brotherly Love. Granted, they are pumping out money like the Dodgers, but they certainly are having the post-season success. Is this the year they finally win it all?

5) Tampa Bay Rays:

For about the last five years, it’s felt like this is finally the year to bet against the Rays. Every spring, there’s so many reason to believe this is finally the year Tampa doesn’t find a way to contend. 2024 doesn’t feel any different. In other words, your guess is as good as mine on this team.

Need Some Things To Go Their Way

Welcome to a collection of clubs who almost have the goods to win on their own; but anything is possible if they get more than one “lucky break.”

1A & 1B) Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals:

Although no team underperformed in 2023 more than the St. Louis Cardinals, together with their rival Chicago Cubs they form the class of the NL Central. Yeah, I know it’s a bad division, but somebody has to win it. .

Other than their colors, confusing the 2024 Cubs and Cardinals is perfectly understandable. The following grid tells the story.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, that’s got to be good for at least a paragraph that says the Pirates aren’t very good (again), the Brewers are irrelevant, and the Reds are interesting…but not that interesting. Either the Cubs or the Cardinals have to win the NL Central. Pick whichever you like.

3) Seattle Mariners:

The biggest problem facing the Mariners isn’t necessarily the perennial contenders in Houston or the new Kings of the Hill Texas Rangers. Because of lack of uncertainty with long-term TV rights. Seattle could be a contender, but without knowing what they can count on for resources, they made the decision to cut payroll.

While the Mariners should be able to depend on one of the better starting rotations in the bigs, but getting a World Series run out of offensive core of Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger, Josh Rosas, Mitch Garver, and Jorge Polanco is a totem-pole tall order. If anybody can do it, it’s Scott Servais…who is the best manager in baseball nobody talks about.

4) San Diego Padres:

The Milwaukee Brewers used to my “fool’s gold” team; the one that I’m done buying until they actually win something. The Padres have richly earned this distinction. Every year, we are all warned by “those in the know” to be on the lookout for the juggernaut Padres. Every year, they fall short.

We could go back and forth all day long as to whether this is a case of writers giving the Friars too much credit, or just good, old-fashioned underperforming. Either way, with the existing drama being compounded by the death of owner Peter Seidler, and the fact this team was taking out $50 million loans to make payroll, I will regard the Padres as a dysfunctional soap opera not worthy of putting 20 cents on…until they show me otherwise.

5) Minnesota Twins:

Get ready for Groundhog Day, Twins fans. If you liked 2023, 2024 promises more of the same. Win a weak division, maybe win a play-off series, and that’s about it. Frankly, Groundhog Day is this team’s best outcome. The alternative is the loss of Sonny Gray tanks the rotation, the loss of Kenta Maeda isn’t enough “addition by subtaction” to counter that, the Twins take on water right about mid-August and swap spots with Cleveland.

At Least They Don’t Suck

Do I really need to explain this one? They aren’t terrible, but they also aren’t great. These are teams you can expect to be somewhere around the .500 mark.

1) Cleveland Guardians:

Here’s today essay question. Decide whether the Guardians want to be contenders in the AL Remedial Central, and give three reasons supporting your assertion. You’ve got to tell men what this team wants to do, because I haven’t the foggiest notion. They didn’t make any appreciable off-season moves to avoid a repeat of a six games under .500 3rd place finish, even though they have enough pitching to contend for the weakest division in either league.

Just like their counterparts in the National League, Cleveland looks to be the class of the Central in the Junior Circuit. To be honest, that could be partially by default, because I have no idea what the White Sox are and the Twins seem to take the cake for shooting themselves in the foot. But to be fair, Cleveland boasts a top-to-bottom pitching staff that could make any team a contender, which is especially the case for the offensively-challenged Guardians.

2) Milwaukee Brewers:

Last year, I called this team “fool’s gold.” This year is all about a complete lack of anything resembling gold. With no Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, the Brewers won’t have much in terms of starting pitching. The lineup will be all about awaiting the blossoming of prospects Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, and Garrett Mitchell. But the Brewers days of contending even in the relatively weak NL Central are over…for now.

3) Cincinnati Reds:

The first year of the post-Joey Votto era in the “Queen City” should prove to be a promising one. This is a team with just enough intriguing young talent; just enough veteran leadership, and just enough pitching to be a factor in a weak NL Central.

Not a contender…just a factor.

4) Boston Red Sox:

The fact the Red Sox are in de facto rebuild mode is probably the worst-kept secret in all of baseball. When they signed Lucas Giolito to be the cornerstone of a shiny new rotation, the Red Sox were rolling the dice to the tune of a two-year, $38.5 million contract on a guy who notched an 8-15 record with a meh ERA of 4.88. Well, that has already come up “snake eyes” as Giolito is on the shelf for all of 2024 after elbow surgery.

That leaves Boston with a starting rotation with Nick Pivetta and precious little else. Combined with a lineup that offers almost no real protection for Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, the Red Sox will struggle to score runs, will give up more than they get, and yet will somehow manage to be a .500 club.

5) Pittsburgh Pirates:

This team feels like they are in the 12^th year of a 5 year rebuild. On the plus side, the Pirates could actually be quite formidable. O’Neil Cruz is back and can be expected to continue to do O’Neil Cruz-type things. If former #1pick Henry Davis turns to rough spots from 2023 into learning opportunities for 2024, he could be a solid contributor to an offense centered around Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andrew McCutchen. Countering that is the fact after Mitch Keller. the pitching staff is practically a mile-ling freight train of question marks. Contending for a play-off spot seems like a stretch, but who knows what may lie in the 13^th year of the 5 year plan?

Why Wait For Next Year?

One way or another, these teams need to make a decision about their future.

2) New York Mets:

2024 is the trend-breaker for the New York Mets, because for the first time in longer than we’d care to remember, the following paragraph is not true.

Until further notice, my official position on optimism concerning the New York Mets is this: I’ll believe when I see it. It’s already looking like another promising spring in Port St. Lucie might become another long summer in Queens. Sure, I understand the excitement over new owner Steve Cohen’s spreading money across the free-agent market like a lawn sprinkler, but come on, Mets fans. Haven’t you seen this movie before?

~ Every baseball preview in the history of this blog

The harsh reality is there is no optimism in Queens to start 2024. Mets fans have resigned themselves to the fact this team won’t be very good, it’s entirely possible they trade Pete Alonzo, and even WFAN’s Gregg Giannotti is already shoveling dirt on the collective grave of the Mets.

That means we will have to retire our Giannoti Mets meme, because nobody will be watching out for the Mets.

3) Colorado Rockies:

This team is an exercise in “bad to worse.” “Bad” is when your team lost 103 games in 2023. “Bad” is when arguably your two best pitchers are German Marquez and Antonio Senatela, “Worse” is when both those guys are already scratched for the entirety of the 2024 season. The question: How close is “rock bottom” in the “Mile High City?”

4) Los Angeles Angels:

The clock is ticking for the Angels. Shohei Ohtani ain’t walking through that club house door, Mike Trout has kinda, sorta hinted at wanting to be traded, and Anthony Rendon is auditioning for the Angels’ Wasted Money Hall of Fame. Not to mention, the Angels’ farm system looks like an Iowa cornfield five minutes after a baseball-sized hailstorm.

The only thing keeping the Halos out of the AL West cellar is the A’s booked their reservations first. But that won’t always be the case, and under owner Arte Moreno’s continued oafishness, that day is coming sooner rather than later.

5) Detroit Tigers:

The Tigers surprised every body last year by getting far closer to .500 than anybody expected. Could the additions of the likes of Gio Urshela, Shelby Miller, and Kenta Maeda push the Tigers into contention in the AL Central? Why not? Minnesota won this division only 9 games ahead of the Tigers who finished at 78-84.

It’s Going To Be A Long Summer

Everybody has hope on Opening Day, but some lose it far faster than others. But that begs the question: Can you have “heartbreak” if you never had expectations to begin with?

1) Miami Marlins:

The problem with the Marlins is that between the the Sandy Alcantara situation and the upheaval in the front office, the Marlins essentially froze themselves in carbonite. They’re basically the same team they were in 2023, just without their Cy Young winning pitcher. They’re still not going to complete with Philadelphia or Atlanta; the realistic goal for this team is not to finish in last place.

2) Kansas City Royals:

Funny how the Royals inked Bobby Witt, Jr. to a big-buck, long-term deal right after it became cleat that thanks to baseball’s “luxury tax,” the Los Angeles Dodgers in effect will be covering almost all almost of Kansas City’s payroll in 2024. That makes them baseball’s version of the teen-age kid at McBurgerQueen who thinks minimum wage rocks because he’s still living with his parents and hasn’t the first clue about what paying rent/mortgage every month means.

We all start out as that kid; most of grow beyond that. Despite their investment in Witt, the Royals are “Peaked In High School” Rob Lowe. They simply have no future with a roster (except for Witt) perilously slim on young talent, and fleshed out with a lot of aging “has-beens” or “never weres.”

3) Washington Nationals:

The good news? The Nationals have a ton of burgeoning young talent, and collectively they should continue to get better. The bad news? This is still a really awful baseball team.

4) Chicago White Sox:

The recent deal sending Dylan Cease to San Diego means the Mighty Whiteys know they’re not going to be all that mighty. Last place in the AL Central will be a race to the bottom with the Royals. Don’t be surprised if owner Jerry Reinsdorf has a yard sale of anything the White Sox have left.

5) Oakland Athletics:

Remember Rachel Phelps, the owner of the Cleveland Indians in the movie Major League? She deliberately fielded a team of baseball flotsam and jetsam in order to finish dead last, break the team’s lease, and get out of town. For you remaining A’s fans, does that sound familiar?

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Got a question for our 70’s TY Sports Anchor? Got your own take? Nothing is “off-limits,” and no take is “too hot.” The only questions or comments Boyd Bergquist can’t handle are the one you don’t send him!

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