Dubsism

What your view of sports and life would be if you had too many concussions

The Super Bowl: The Definitive Dubsism Preview

Let’s start with my original playoff predictions:

New England Patriots

Why They Can Win:

Because Tom Brady is still Tom Brady; one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history on the NFL, and he isn’t far enough past his prime to be discounted.

Why They Can’t Win:

To see the future in Foxboro, just look toward Indianapolis. Don’t look right this second, because you may notice the Patriots are beginning to get old before your very eyes.  They are the worst 13-3 team I’ve ever seen – they define over-rated.  They can’t run the ball and their defense couldn’t stop a Pop Warner team, yet somehow they are top-seed in the AFC.

All this team has is Tom Brady, and that’s just enough to hide the real defects in this team. There’s a reason I call this the “Manning Rule.”

Odds of Winning: 18 to 1

New York Giants

Why They Can Win:

Take a coin out of your pocket. This coin represents the streakiness of the New York Giants. Flip the coin. Heads, Giants win.

Why They Can’t Win:

That complete lack of consistency drives me batshit crazy. Flip that coin Again. Tales, Giants lose. Eli Manning is easily my favorite player to watch in the NFL; he is like a poker player who loses a shitload of $50 pots, and just enough $10,000 ones to stay above water.  This time, Eli is all in with two pair.

Odds of Winning: 20 to 1

Now that we are down to a head-to-head matchup, there are three categories to analyze.

1) What Vegas Thinks

Anybody who loves to bet knows professional gamblers pay attention to five key categories:

  • Yards Rushing per Game – Patriots 110.2, Giants 89.2
  • Yards Rushing Allowed Per Game – Patriots 117.1, Giants 121.2
  • Points Scored Per Game – Patriots 32.1, Giants 24.6
  • Points Allowed Per Game – Patriots 21.4, Giants 25.0
  • Ratio of Points Scored to Points Allowed –Patriots 1.5, Giants 0.984

This discussion falls into the classic “more than meets the eye” department because it would seem to be a clean sweep for the Patriots. But the number get more curious when you consider that the above bulleted stats are from the regular season. The numbers change quite a bit when you keep them to the post-season.

  • Post-Season Yards Rushing per Game – Patriots 121.0, Giants 117.3
  • Post-Season Yards Rushing Allowed Per Game – Giants 120.3, Patriots 130.0
  • Post-Season Points Scored Per Game – Patriots 34, Giants 27
  • Post-Season Points Allowed Per Game – Giants 15, Patriots 13
  • Post-Season Ratio of Points Scored to Points Allowed –Patriots 2.62, Giants 1.8

Now instead of being a distinct advantage for New England, there has been a definite closing of the gap by the Giants. The numbers still point to the Patriots being a better bet, but consider the environment in which this significant statistical improvement occurred.

  • The Patriots played two games at home. One of those games was against the Broncos, whose anemic performance skews the post-season numbers dramatically toward making the Patriots appear better than they really are.
  • The Giants played three games total, two of which were on the road against the top two seeds in the NFC (Packers and 49ers). The Giants man-handled the Packers (who were a prohibitive favorite) in Lambeau Field, and took down the 49ers in overtime in a quagmire at Candlestick.

Boil it all down, and it means the Giants have been far more impressive than the Patriots in the post-season. This is why despite the picture painted by the numbers, the Patriots are only a 3 point favorite.

Advantage: Push

2) The On-the-Field Matchups

  • The Battle of the Trenches

The Giants go as far as their offensive line, which is a unit that has played out of its mind the last three playoff games. The Patriots can’t offer anywhere near what the 49ers did, and New York handled San Francisco with relative ease. Meanwhile, the front four of the Giants are going to make themselves well-know to Tom Brady’s face.

  • The Battle of the Quarterbacks

Brady vs. Manning II: This time it’s personal.  Actually, this time it is without David “Helmet Catch” Tyree.  So now it’s likely to be less about Eli getting lucky, and about Brady finally showing how over-rated of a quarterback he really is.  Try this one on for size: Who would had a better season – Tim Tebow with the Patriots or Tom Brady with the Broncos?

Not to mention, even sportswriters have figured out how to beat Brady. And like it or not, a lot of Brady’s passing stats are heavily padded by the yards-after-catch of the Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski’s of the world.

  • The Battle of the Non-Over-Rated B.S.

Neither team runs the ball particularly, but the Giants have picked up their game as of late. Neither team is really worth discussing in the defensive backfield. Both teams rely on their offensive lines, big-play quarterbacks, and a couple of downfield play-makers.  To me, the Giants pass-rush will make the difference.

Advantage: Giants

3) A Comparison of the Cities

The trouble here is that by judging where these teams respective stadia are located, there  really aren’t any cities to compare. I know that it is petty and anal retentive, but it has always been a pet peeve of mine that the “New York” Giants actually play in New Jersey. I’ll even admit it is a double-standard; I don’t apply this to the Jets, probably because they were treated as the little brother of New York football for decades. I get that East Rutherford is a mere six miles from mid-town Manhattan, but the concrete canyons of the city might as well be a world away from the partially-drained swamp they call Meadowlands.

At least the Patriots are sort of honest about it. They aren’t trying to get you to believe that some jerkwater hick town somewhere in greater New England where they likely still burn witches  is still somehow “Boston.”

Advantage: Patriots

About J-Dub

What your view of sports would be if you had too many concussions

11 comments on “The Super Bowl: The Definitive Dubsism Preview

  1. I think I’m gonna stay away from wagering on this one.

    I took the G-Men moneyline last time around and would do so again if the line was more than three.

    But Vegas isn’t gonna fall for that banana in the tailpipe once again.

    Let me ask you this. If Belichick loses to the Giants TWICE, doesn’t that taint his legacy? Are Eli and Coughlin his great white whales?

    Like

    • Bobby Charts
      January 27, 2012

      LMAO!

      Like

    • Sam's Sports Brief
      January 29, 2012

      Maybe! And if the Giants win, do we start talking about Coughlin as a Hall of Fame candidate?

      Like

      • J-Dub
        January 29, 2012

        Why not? ESPN will start a discussion with less…

        Like

    • Sam's Sports Brief
      January 29, 2012

      Anyone with 4 Super Bowl won’t get a tarnished legacy from a SB loss

      Like

  2. Sam's Sports Brief
    January 25, 2012

    The biggest question in this game will to see how the Giants top-tier pass rush handles Brady and the elusive Patriots’ offense.

    Like

  3. chappy81
    January 25, 2012

    Maybe I missed it, but who are you taking with the spread at 3?

    Like

    • J-Dub
      January 25, 2012

      I’m being deliberately vague at this point.

      Like

  4. sportsattitudes
    January 26, 2012

    I’m still in “slow burn” mode over the 49ers losing to the Swamp Things. I have to think on this a bit more. Deliberately vague works for me too.

    Like

    • Bobby Charts
      January 27, 2012

      lol

      Like

  5. Bobby Charts
    January 27, 2012

    Very interesting numbers

    Like

Comments are closed.

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This entry was posted on January 25, 2012 by in NFL, Sports and tagged , , , , , .

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