What your view of sports and life would be if you had too many concussions
Last week’s theme was all about the dreaded “push.” To illustrate that, I used some classic 90s Hip-Hop. This week’s theme centers on another gambling pitfall; the shifting line. To my knowledge, there hasn’t been a pop-culture phenomenon called “line shifting.” But the same age which cements my position as the grumpy old man who is completely out of touch allows give me the recollection something called “line dancing.” Whether it’s “shifting” or “dancing,” any time the line takes a major move before the games start, it can have a tectonic effect…just like when a fault line “dances.”
That’s why when you place a bet can be as important as which side you take. When Vegas posts the opening line on an event, it’s never set in stone. But since that’s what the odds-makers do for a living, they more often then not set such a good number, they meet their goal of balancing the action. In other words, if the numbers they set are “correct,” there’s equal amounts of money placed on either side.
But if they aren’t “correct,” they will move the line in order to keep things in balance. That’s because there is a precise term for a book who gets it’s action out of balance: Bankrupt. Instead, good books keep the line in the right place so you are the one who goes broke.
Hence the importance of timing. When you get a line you know is going to move, you grab it and run like a thief in the night. This past week had three examples; everybody knew that Cincinnati at Notre Dame (-2) and Texas at Texas Christian (-2) were going to move faster than my bowels after two bowls of Raisin Bran. Grabbing those as openers before they moved was they key to this week’s success, but the real “mover” was hitting the “Payday of the Week.” Brigham Young opened on the road as an 8.5 point favorite over Utah State. Those in the know grabbed BYU early; those who waited until the Cougars ballooned to a 14-point favorite ended up with last week’s theme…a push.
Either way, locking in favorable line before they moved is what saw the J-Dub Challenge Bankroll gain $648; making the season total now stands at $6,778…up from the original $5K.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER (mandated by our very own Small Town Pizza Lawyer):
Thanks to the Supreme Court, gambling is no longer illegal at Bushwood, sir. However, the Supreme Court can’t really help me unless one of them is willing to keep Mrs. J-Dub from braining me with a cast-iron skillet if she found out how many dimes I’m dropping on college football.
That means that as far as she knows, all wagers are mythical in nature and this is in no way, shape, or form a gambling advice column. In other words, if you lose your own “real” money, that’s nobody’s fault but yours, so don’t yell at me when we meet at the plasma center on Monday.
If you think you have a gambling problem, go find the 800 number on your own. I’m not a goddamn public service announcement.
Since I live in the heart of Big Ten country, almost literally in the shadow of Ross-Ade stadium, those around me who know I’m a gambler will invariably ask me about the Boilermakers, so I might as well bet on them…
Purdue is idle the week.
We went back to the very first college football game in 1869, and the premise is simple…you’re the champ until somebody beats you. The current champion is the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Alabama (-14.5) at Texas A&M O/U 51 $100 Alabama, $100 Over
It’s like the game says…the idea is to hang on to your cash. That means this is the “big play” of the week; the one that should make today “Payday.”
Boise State at Brigham Young (-2.5) O/U 57.5 $500 Boise State
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