Change My Mind: Seven Serious Mid-Season NFL Observations

The introduction here is short and sweet. At the mid-point of the National Football League season, here’s seven “takes” you only can get at Dubsism.

Just how many “elite” quarterbacks are there?

This age-old discussion usually starts with making a list of guys who belong in the discussion. Right now in the NFL, there’s only seven quarterbacks worthy of mention here (in alphabetical order): Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. Go ahead and argue with me about who does and doesn’t belong on that list. But before you do, consider this.

What defines “elite?” Again, all the textbook definitions you’d care to supply will only miss the point. For purposes of this discussion, let’s just stipulate it means “the best of the best.” To me, there’s no better example of that than the U.S. Special Forces. Even to be allowed to try out for such a distinction means an applicant is amongst the “best”…but what sets the winners apart?

Let’s just start with the math. For example, only about six percent of applicants are accepted into the U.S. Navy SEAL training program. From there, only about 1 in 4 complete the full training program, and not all who pass all the screening, testing, and training are offered spots in the SEALs. To keep everything easy, let’s just say that all rounds out to 10%.

Now, let’s apply that math to the National Football League. Selecting 10% of the starting quarterbacks in the league means out of whatever list you choose, you can only pick three.

Now who ya got? For me, the three are (in alphabetical order): Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes.

Lamar Jackson will win the MVP Award, but will come up short (yet again) in the play-offs.

Apologies in the #SorryNotSorry category to the Lamar Jackson-o-philes out there, but the reality of the National Football League is that in any single game, if the teams are relatively competitive, the one with the better quarterback has a huge advantage.

As of this writing the Baltimore Ravens may very well be amongst the best in the NFL. But if that continues into January, the formula for their success is going to change dramatically. This goes to the “teams being relatively competitive” part.

Come the play-offs, the competition gets much stiffer. That matters because the recent four-game winning streak which raised the Ravens to upper echelon of the NFL came courtesy of wins against the hapless Cardinals and Titans. But it also feature dominating wins over the far-from-hapless Seahawks and the pretty-damn good Detroit Lions.

The those first two wins are all about the rule about the better quarterback when the teams are roughly competitive. That’s the good news.

The bad news is the Ravens first five games include wins over non-competitive squads like the “first time out” DeMeco Ryan/C.J. Stroud- quarterbacked Houston Texas, the “Burrow-less” Bengals, and the “whatever-they-really-are” Browns. Not only does that indicate the Ravens’ might not be “for real,” but the two losses in that span don’t just break the “better quarterback” rule. They give it a compound fracture…unless you think Gardner Minshew II and Kenny Pickett top Lamar Jackson on our earlier list.

Frankly, we may not need to wait until the play-offs to see what the Ravens and Lamar Jackson really are in 2023; their next two games might do that. The Browns and the Bengals are definitely not the teams they were in September, and…speaking of that aforementioned list…this is Lamar Jackson’s shot to show me I’m wrong.

The Buffalo Bills are the most over-rated team in the NFL.

• FACT: Josh Allen is a really good quarterback
• FACT: The Buffalo Bills are not a really good football team

To be fair, I understand the Bills’ defense is the definition of “injury-riddled.” But to be honest, everything the Bills do on offense is all about their quarterback. That might seem a bit obvious given I have Allen as an “elite” quarterback, but he’s too much of the offense.

The Bills’ offensive line is a “C” unit at best. This creates some problems. It makes the Bills’ passing game too reliant on Allen’s mobility. It also exacerbates the Sean McDermott-coached Bills historically-weak running game…as well as forcing Allen to be far too large a part of it. This also means the Bills’ passing game has no time to set up the deep ball, which really doesn’t matter since Stefon Diggs hasn’t been a “rip the top off” receiver since he wore Vikings’-purple and COVID wasn’t a “thing” yet.

Think about it this way: The Bills might be the only play-off team to lose to both the Jets and Patriots…if they make the play-offs.

Jerry Jones in the NFL’s reigning “Crazy Old Man.” Mark Davis and Jim Irsay are running neck-in-neck to be his successor….and that’s not good.

Among it’s ownership, the NFL’s original “crazy old man” was Al Davis. If there was any doubt, he cemented that status with the infamous “1970s-era overhead projector presentation” he gave explaining his firing of Lane Kiffin in 2008. Jerry Jones inherited that title when Davis passed away in 2011.

The equivalent would be “Jerrah” explaining one of his bizarre 21^st-century decisions in a 1997 CompuServe chat room. He hasn’t done that yet, but those wacky decisions needing some explaining are out there. Whatever weird way he uses to decipher his latest weird decision doesn’t really matter here; the point is who inherits the title upon “Jerrah’s” passing.

Realistically, it’s a two-man race between owners Mark Davis of the Las Vegas Raiders and Jim Irsay of the Indianapolis Colts. I don’t think there’s any real debate as to the batshit-crazy nature of these two; the conversation that matters is the one about the main difference between them and their nutty fathers.

Both Al Davis and Robert Irsay were wealthy NFL owners, but they made their own money. You can say the same about “Jerrah.”

But both Al Davis and Jerry Jones played huge roles in shaping the NFL as you know it today…before they hit “Crazy Old Man” status. Mark Davis and Jim Irsay are exact opposite of all those guys; they are little more than “trust-fund babies” who inherited everything they’ve got.

The bottom line: The “Crazy Old Man” used to be a guy who made his own money, all while making a shit-load of cash for a lot of other people. Soon, that title will be in the hands of uninteresting guys living off Daddy’s interest who have no chance to be any part of progress for the league.

Instead, I’ll give you even money one of these guys’ obituary is going to contain the phrase “found dead in a South Beach hotel room.”

Then…who’s the next man up?

Jim Irsay probably already regrets drafting Anthony Richardson.

Let’s talk about one those future “Crazy Old Men” for a minute. If nothing else, “Cap’n Jim” Irsay is the definition of “impulsive.” It makes sense, part of being a “trust-fund baby” is never having to learn to control your urges.

The problem is “Cap’n Jim” runs the ship that is the Indianapolis Colts, and there are too many times where his impulses have steered them right into the rocks.

The latest example came earlier this season with what I refer to as the “Colts’ Star” problem. “Cap’n Jim” has been at the helm of the Colts for almost thirty years now, and during almost all of that time, they’ve had at least one “star” player to be the proverbial “face of the franchise.” Be it Marshall Faulk, Peyton Manning, or Andrew Luck, the Colts have always had that guy. But ever since Luck retired before the 2019 season, that hasn’t been true.

It’s not like “Cap’n Jim” hasn’t been holing auditions…just look at the list:

2019 – Quentin Nelson: The second-year player from nearby Notre Dame burst on the scene by being named All-Pro in his rookie year. He was the best player on the team, but nobody cares about offensive linemen. Not “that guy.”

2020 – Phillip Rivers: He put up borderline Hall-of Fame numbers as a quarterback with the Chargers. He played pretty well as a Colt, but he was old and retired to be a high-school football coach. Not “that guy.”

2021 – Carson Wentz: This guy just can’t catch a break (more on that later). Despite being injured in training camp and not getting time to practice with his new team, Wentz puts up admirable numbers for a team which had little better than a patchwork offense. But “Cap’n Jim” makes Wentz a scapegoat. Not allowed to be “that guy.”

2022 – Jonathan Taylor: The Good News? Taylor led the league in rushing in 2021, which meant “Cap’n Jim” believed he found “that guy.” The Bad News? Taylor had Irsay over a barrel because he was determined to get paid to be “that guy.”

From the minute the Colts traded Carson Wentz to Washington Redskins Generals Commanders, “Cap’n Jim” and Jonathan Taylor were locked on collision course in a contract hold-out game of “chicken.” But Irsay decided he was using the #4 overall pick in the 2023 Draft to draft “that guy.” Say what you will about Anthony Richardson, but the reality is when you’re a quarterback drafted early in the 1^st round, you’re “that guy.” For better or worse, you’re getting most of the media attention.

Well, that is until you’re out for the season with a shoulder injury. The thing nobody seemed to notice was the timing of Richardson’s injury relative to “Cap’n Jim” suddenly deciding to jam a crowbar in his wallet when it came to Taylor. Nothing drives “Cap’n Jim’s” impulsive nature quite like when his plans go awry. Then he gets swallowed by “I’ve got to do something” syndrome. Then he does just that…he does something. Not necessarily the right thing…but something. Hiring Jeff Saturday to be the head coach is a perfect example.

In this case, his intended “that guy” is signing autographs at the physical therapist’s office and Jonathan Taylor hasn’t played like “that guy” (yet…). It’s quite possible that today’s face of the Indianapolis Colts is some guy who probably drives to practice in an ’87 Camaro. That was not “Cap’n Jim’s” plan.

It’s also quite possible that “Cap’n Jim” has a $76 million (the combined value of Richardson’s and Taylor’s contracts) case of “Buyer’s Remorse.” Not to mention, he’ll get to do this all over again since the Colts figure to have another pretty good draft pick in 2024…and they still don’t have “that guy.”

It might be cheaper just to buy Gardner Minshew II a new Camaro.

The Detroit Lions are a legitimate threat to win the Super Bowl.

Here’s another case of keeping something short and sweet. There’s four factors that put this team solidly in the “real deal” category. Let’s just check the boxes:

✔ They have a quarterback with play-off experience. Don’t forget the Jared Goff-led gave the Tom Brady Patriots all they could handle in Super Bowl 53.

✔ They can run the ball and play defense. There’s a dirty little secret about the Detroit Lions. Not very many teams can wrestle control of the line of scrimmage away from them.

✔ They have a favorable schedule. The fact is the road to the Super Bowl is much easier in the NFC; there’s only one quarterback from the earlier list of possible “elites” who isn’t in the AFC. They will only face one of those “elites” today when they go on the road to Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Their division is weak; Chicago and Green Bay are awful, and the Vikings are a function of how long you think the “Josh Dobbs miracle” can last. Five of the Lions’ last eight games are against their NFC North opponents.

✔ They have a chip on their shoulder. It’s been a long time since Detroit tasted a championship. They haven’t even won a play-off game since 1992. Do you know what you get when you combine that level of thirst with the idea many thought Matt Campbell wasn’t “head coach material” and Jared Goff was largely written off as a “winning” quarterback? A team that win or lose, they’re going to be really rough on whoever is in their way.

Once again, Carson Wentz will not get a fair shake.

Has there ever been a guy with a weirder career arc than Carson Wentz? Here’s a guy who within a 12-month span went from a guy who unified the Philadelphia Eagles’ fan base (something almost nobody does) to being run out of town as if he were Rich Kotite. The guy’s whole career has been one “bad rap” after another. His recent signing with the Los Angeles Rams seems like another dose of “more of the same.”

Let’s start with what really happened in Philadelphia. In April of 2019, the Eagles exercised a $22.783 million option to retain Wentz for 2020. Thee months later, the Eagles sign Wentz to a 4-year, $128 million contract extension. The Eagles did that because in 2019, Wentz pulled off a miracle. He got the 9-7 Eagles into the play-offs without having a single receiver having more than 500 yards worth of catches. Running back Miles Sanders led the team with 509 receiving yards.

But because Wentz could not make chicken salad out of chicken shit twice, he caught the “scapegoat” label for the first time. Yeah, because it was Wentz’ fault the contract the Eagles gave him completely ham-strung their ability to sign free agents to address the multiple holes that team had at the time. All of a sudden, the guy worth the salary-cap busting deal became the problem.

Now, the Eagles needed to find a taker to get Wentz out of town, but who would be willing to take on such a prohibitive contract? Enter the aforementioned impulsive (and desperate) “Cap’n Jim” Irsay in Indianapolis. Not only does he think Wentz can be “that guy,” he’s willing to pony up a 2021 3^rd-round draft pick along with a 1^st-rounder in 2022. In other words, not only was “Cap’n Jim” willing to take on Wentz’ contract, he was willing to pay for the privilege.

The problem was the Colts now had the exact same problem as the Eagles; the money they were now pumping into a quarterback meant they couldn’t address any of the other major holes they had. As mentioned earlier, “Cap’n Jim” hands the “scapegoat” tag to Wentz, even though with his 27 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions, he clearly wasn’t the problem.

As amazing as it sounds, “Cap’n Jim” managed to find an even bigger sucker than he was. Now, for anybody who wants to hang a “failure” tags on any quarterback who tried to play for the Washington Redskins Generals Commanders under the ownership of Daniel Snyder…well, they simply do not understand reality. Expecting Carson Wentz to be able to do anything with that sorry-ass franchise is the definition of delusional.

Now comes the latest chapter in the saga that is Carson Wentz. The setup is all the same; take a struggling team desperate to recapture some past glory, and make sure that team needs a quarterback. This is another great way to guarantee “That Guy Syndrome” attaches to the situation. In this case, if the Los Angeles Rams had any fans, they would have the expectation Wentz is going save their season. Naturally, “save” is completely subjective; the only universally-acknowledged result would be Wentz taking the Rams to a Super Bowl title.

That’s not a realistic expectation, nor is the idea that Wentz can cure all that ails the Rams. But fair or not, Wentz will get the blame…because he’s Carson Wentz.

Doubt any of my observations?

Change my mind.

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You can see more of my not-so-popular opinions here.

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