Dubsism

What your view of sports and life would be if you had too many concussions

NFL Lockout Over By July 15th – In Other News, I’m Opening A Unicorn Ranch

According to the eternal optimists over at Yahoo Sports, there is a belief the NFL lockout is nearing an end. I will believe that when I see it.

Despite all the fuzzy cuddle-bunny, fell good crap in their article, the problem is neither the article nor the warring sides ever touch the “turd in the punch bowl.” Comb their copy, you won’t see it.  But you will see a lot of “wishful thinking.”

Now that NFL owners appear to have cleared a significant hurdle on the way to labor peace with the players, the question for the league is simple: How fast can they get the league year started? The short answer is sometime on or just before July 15. By that point, the league may be reopen for business on a permanent basis, meaning free agents could get signed and draft picks could start to meet with coaches for the first time in hopes of catching up as much as possible by the start of training camp.

“That kind of timeline is altogether possible,” a source on the owners’ side said Tuesday after the owners spent a little less than six hours hearing from Commissioner Roger Goodell about the state of the collective bargaining agreement talks with the players. Just as important, the owners were given a chance to object to the basic concepts put before them. The league went so far as to give the owners an extra day to discuss the negotiations. In the end, the meeting became a day trip.

Those two opeing paragraphs tell you where this is really headed; it’s all “may be, could be, possibly…”

While Goodell cautioned reporters not to read too much into that, it was taken as a good sign by most. Furthermore, the wide grin on New York Giants owner John Mara’s face was a pretty good tell about the state of the talks. In recent months, Mara’s face has been etched with a dour look, such as in March when talks between the owners and the players broke down, and the CBA expired.

Mara repeatedly refused to comment on the mediations and the meeting of the owners, saying that he and the rest of the owners were under court order not to say anything. Goodell was nearly as hard to pin down, but part of that was based on the fact that the players have to go through the same process. If the owners start to present too strong a front, it could be taken as presumptuous by players. At this point, any sense of overconfidence could throw the process in reverse.

“We have a very strong view of the priorities … ownership is unified,” Goodell said.

That’s a whole lot of nothing to be interpreted as a “good sign.” A smile on the face of some guy? Ownership is unified? I would certainly hope they are unified; they’ve had four months to get on the same page.  But wait, the “crapola” gradient rises exponentially from here.

Overall, the two sides have a preliminary agreement that all money will be split by a simple division, the players getting 48 percent and the owners getting 52 percent. While the players have technically taken a cut in their overall share of the revenue, the owners have agreed to guarantees that will essentially assure that teams will spend a higher minimum amount of money (90 percent of the salary cap) each year.

If you’ve ever been involved in high-level negotiations, you see the problem here. It’s all in this phrase – “the owners have agreed to guarantees that will essentially assure that teams will spend a higher minimum amount of money.” That’s a whole lot of gray for something that needs to end up in black and white in order for any deal to get finalized. In other words, this story is wanting you to believe as much as the author does the money part of this impasse had been solved, except that it hasn’t been. “Preliminary” agreements are worth as much as half a cup of cold coffee with cigarette butt floating in it.

Now for the next deal-killer… 

Additionally, retired NFL player Carl Eller met with four owners Tuesday morning to get assurances that the group of retirees he represents will get better health and disability benefits. Although Eller’s suit was grouped with the Brady et al v. NFL case, Eller’s group still has a say over the settlement and, ultimately, the eventual new collective bargaining agreement.

“The purpose of the meeting on Tuesday was to make clear that the bicycle has to turn into a tricycle,” said attorney Michael Hausfeld, who is representing Eller in his case. “The retirees are going to have a say in the process once this is over.”

While that could throw a wrench in the process, the source on the owners’ side and two others indicated that getting past the owners on Tuesday was the major obstacle. On Wednesday, the players will hold their own meeting in Boston and then are expected to meet with owners later in the day and again Thursday to continue hammering out the deal.

“Could throw a wrench in the process?” Now that the retired players have a stake in this collective bargaining agreement, get ready for the same style of discussion you get whenever the government talks about messing with social security. If you think you blue-haired granny gets irate when Uncle Sam screws with her check, what do you think a group of old offensive linemen are going to do? Somebody is going to get their skull cracked with a walker.

“At this point, you could probably have the terms drawn up by Friday if you wanted to really hurry the process, but two weeks is probably more realistic,” said the source on the owners’ side. “Two weeks for the paperwork is pretty reasonable.”

I don’t care what anybody says, unnamed sources are worthless. Come out of the shadows of the parking garage and speak up. Either the word can’t be all that true if you aren’t willing to back it, or you are afraid of repercussions for spilling the news. Of course, if that were the case, you wouldn’t be in the parking garage in the first place, or you would have found a way to blow the whistle without your fingerprints on it.

Now for deal-killer number#2…

There are other steps along the way. For instance, all of the parties involved will have to meet with Minnesota District Judge Susan Richard Nelson to seek preliminary settlement of the class-action lawsuits brought by current players such as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning, and former players such as Eller. After that, the league will have the NFL Players Association recertify as a union and the owners will have to reconvene to give the agreement final approval. Given all those steps, the July 15 date starts to look more and more realistic.

“You’d like it to be as early as possible,” one team executive said. “Like I said before, I’d like to get started this week, but we know that’s not happening. The way everybody seems to be talking, mid-July is what we’re all hoping for.”

Even if all the sides agree, join hands and sing songs about unicorns, fuzzy little ducks, and rainbows, there’s still the matter of the federal judge, and there’s still the matter of yet another unnamed source who is still using verbs like “hope.” You don’t “hope” your way into collective bargaining agreements; hope is not a strategy.

Now for the distraction to get you away from the piece missing in all of this…

What that means is free agency figures to be fast and furious. The basic rules of free agency aren’t expected to change, meaning that players with at least four years of experience who are not currently under contract will become unrestricted free agents.

That means players such as Nnamdi Asomugha, Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes, and DeAngelo Williams will head one of the deepest classes of free agents in NFL history. The depth of free agency is primarily because so many players from 2010 weren’t allowed to hit the market when the rules changed, requiring players to have at least six years of service before becoming unrestricted free agents.

While the depth of this free-agent class is subject to debate, the important part is that free agency may soon start, replacing the boring details of a labor dispute.

See that? By getting your hopes up over “this deep free-agent class,” you likely didn’t even notice one of the most contentious points in this whole lockout wasn’t even mentioned. Did the whole matter of the proposed 18-game schedule just vanish into thin air? Did we somehow sprinkle some magic fairy dust on the item that seemed to be the “absolute line in the sand” issue just a few short months ago?

Here’s the deal…anybody that has even been in a negotiation situation can tell you that 90-95% of it is easy; it’s that last 5% that will rip your guts out.  You media folks need to stop peddling false hopes and unicorn ranches made of the easy stuff to a public eager to buy anything if it means they get football.

About J-Dub

What your view of sports would be if you had too many concussions

5 comments on “NFL Lockout Over By July 15th – In Other News, I’m Opening A Unicorn Ranch

  1. tophatal
    June 22, 2011

    And if that happens I hear that Jon Gruden will make an immediate return to the NFL . It’ll take the cabal of lawyers there way past the 15th July to even get a worded document ready that is amenable to everyone .

    So Terrelle show me one of your tattoos ?

    Like

  2. chappy81
    June 22, 2011

    I’m still rooting for a lockout to take away some games. I just want their business to be more in the $4B range instead of the $9B range. Losing a bunch of fair weather fans might do that! Or making people pay for season tickets to games that won’t be played would be even funnier! I was reading that the 18 game schedule was more of a bargaining chip and that the players most likely wouldn’t sign off on it. Not sure if that’s true or not, but at this point I have no idea what to believe. Like you said in the beginning, wake me when it’s over…

    Like

  3. sportsattitudes
    June 23, 2011

    I always thought the retired players as a “third entity” at the bargaining table, which makes the whole thing even more complex. You have active players at various stages in their careers, which can all end on one play. You have retired players who now have a stake in things. You have the most egotistical, in-your-camera owners of any sport. You have a commissioner who wants his legacy written well. Free agency will be epic chaos when ever this gets done. Every time the lawyers enter the room you can push the date out two weeks. An IPO for a new Unicorn Ranch is a more likely scenario to happen sooner than resolution of the NFL labor dispute.

    Like

  4. ChrisHumpherys
    June 27, 2011

    Good luck with the unicorn ranch.

    Only appropriate since the NFL is giving us all the unicorn finger.

    Like

    • JW
      June 27, 2011

      I’m not sure which unicorn appendage we are getting, but I know where they are putting it.

      Like

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This entry was posted on June 22, 2011 by in NFL and tagged , , , .

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