The Dubsism Baseball Power Rankings: The All-Star Break Edition – Will I Have To Eat My Keyboard?

For me, the All-Star break has always represented the “far turn” in the horse race that is the Major League Baseball season. This is the point when general managers acting as jockeys must decide whether they are contenders or pretenders; whether to go to the whip (trade for talent to augment a “stretch run”) or “wait for next year” (have a fire sale). Not to mention, this another great opportunity to see how wrong we really were.

1) Philadelphia Phillies – Previous Rank #2  ↑1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: The pitching rotation – who else has three proven aces on their staff, with a chaser of Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton? Nobody.  Not to mention, this team won 97 games last year despite being crippled by injuries, and whoever wasn’t hurt kinda sucked.

Downside: The loss of Jayson Werth means if nobody emerges as protection for Ryan Howard, he won’t see 20 pitches to hit all year. It also means this line-up is waaaaay left-handed, and the Chase Utley injury doesn’t help. Oh, by the way, the bullpen sucks; and that was before the injury to Brad Lidge.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Take all the stuff we said in April and put it in the “So What?” file. Yeah, this team is still dealing with injury issues, but they have so many weapons they will prove hard to catch.

2)  Boston Red Sox – Previous Rank #11 ↑9

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They are going to score runs by the buttload.  Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia setting the table  in front of a 3-4-5  Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Youkilis means there’s is going to be a lot of crooked numbers on the Fenway scoreboard.

Downside: I don’t give a damn what anybody says, I don’t buy this pitching staff.  Jon Lester is over-rated in my book, although he is still pretty solid. The rest of the starters are coin-flips; is the book out on John Lackey? It sure looks like AL hitters have figured him out.  For being some sort  of “wunderkind,” Clay Buchholz walks a lot of guys. Like it or not, this is as good as it gets, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are non-factors. The addition of Bobby Jenks to the bullpen means, like me, the Red Sox have no faith in Jonathan Papelbon.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Other than Carl Crawford proving to be a money-sucking vortex of mediocrity, and Josh Beckett looking like the old, non-shitty Josh Beckett, we were dead-on about this club. Now, for the next prognostication Sawwwwx Nation won’t like: the bats, as good as they’ve been, won’t survive a play-off series against even a B+ pitching staff.

3) Atlanta Braves – Previous Rank  #8 ↑5

What We Said Originally:

Upside: While they are a collection of “what-ifs” built around a solid core of just enough hitting and just enough pitching, too many of those “what-ifs” look pretty likely.

Downside: How long is this Chipper Jones thing going to last? My fear is that the “resurgence” we saw this spring will fade, and far too many at-bats will be tossed into a hole hoping the dream returns.

And At the Halfway Mark:

This team is “battery-powered,” meaning it is the pitchers and Catcher Brian McCann who are carrying this club. McCann leads the team in all the “triple-crown” categories” (15 HR, 50 RBI, .310) the rest of the offense doesn’t have a guy batting over .275, and Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson both have double-digit wins and sub-2.50 ERAs.

4) New York Yankees – Previous Rank #7 ↑3

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They are a mirror image of the Red Sox; that offense will score runs in droves.

Downside: They will need to score, because their pitching staff is going to give it up faster than a cheerleader on prom night. CC Sabathia is a legitimate ace, but it gets dicey quickly after that. Is AJ Burnett finished? Is Phil Hughes for real? Do Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia know it isn’t 2003 anymore?

And At the Halfway Mark:

The pitching hasn’t been horrible, but there’s a major warning sign in the fact that Ivan Nova has the third-lowest ERA on the staff.  Subtract CC Sabathia, and this staff starts to look more like the Orioles than the Yankees. Offensively, this team is far too dependent on the long-ball, which makes them incredibly susceptible to an injury-related fold. This will be a race between the Yanks and the Sawwwwx to see who collapses first.

5)  San Francisco Giants – Previous Rank #4 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Hey Philadelphia, you can phorget about Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee; the best 1-2 big game pitcher punch is in San Francisco in the form of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.  Last October showed that.  The same rotation that led them to the title is still intact, and if Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner continue to develop, this entire staff if healthy could be better than the Phillies top-to-bottom.

Downside: We still don’t know if they can hit.  Miguel Tejada was the only upgrade made on the offensive end, and Buster Posey is the real deal, so it will all come down to Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell and/or Cody Ross, and the newly-svelte Pablo Sandoval.

And At the Halfway Mark:

I totally don’t get this team at all. Their leading hitter is the 78-year old Miguel Tejada, who is batting a cool .241. Their most productive guy at the plate is Aubrey Huff, who isn’t exactly striking fear in the hearts of pitchers with his 8 homers and 44 RBIs (by the way, that puts him a solid DOZEN ribbies in front of the 2nd place guy). They seem to not know it is legal by the rules of baseball to a) score more than 2 runs per game and b) score before the 6th inning. To that end, this is the stat that puzzles me how they have won 52 games. For a team that supposedly is built on its solid pitching staff, their closer is third on the staff in wins with 6.

6)  Tampa Bay Rays – Previous Rank #6 ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside: The off-season is over, so it can’t get any worse…the Rays have had the worst off-season in recent memory, having lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour. At least they can still pitch.

Downside:  After Evan Longoria, the line-up gets pretty scary. If Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez have nothing left, this could be a tough year.

And At the Halfway Mark:

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again…did you ever notice that every team Manny Ramirez left improved?

7)  Los Angeles Angels – Previous Rank #10 ↑3

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This team has ownership that isn’t afraid to make a move, and you can look for the Angels to be lurking in the weeds at the trade deadline. Everybody saw this team roll over and die after losing Kendrys Morales; the acquisition of Dan Haren was a move for the future, so don’t be surprised when the Angels make another big mid-season move.

Downside: The whole season may be riding on one move; the Vernon Wells acquisition. It could be a stroke of genius, or it could become a money-sucking vortex in the middle of the Angel lineup.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Jered Weaver has an ERA under 2.00, Dan Haren has an ERA of 2.61, and both have WHIPs under 1.00. Both of them along with Ervin Santan have over 100 strikeouts, which is how the pitching staff is undoing the damage Vernon Wells is inflicting to the line-up as an $80 million black hole.

8 ) Texas Rangers – Previous Rank #13 ↑5

What We Said Originally:

Upside:  They can still be competitive in the AL West, even with the loss of Vlad Guerrero’s bat and the inevitable return to earth of C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis.

Downside: It won’t take much to remain competitive in the AL West, which means it more than likely looks to be another long summer in Arlington.

And At the Halfway Mark:

You can go a long way in a division which is a race to 88 wins with 2 guys on a pace to hit ~ 40 home runs, and 3 to drive in ~ 100 runs.

9) Detroit Tigers – Previous Rank #16 ↑7

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They have a “good enough” rotation, and they added some punch to an offense which already features the best offensive weapon in the AL.

Downside: Does the Miguel Cabrera situation become a distraction? If so, and the key to the Tiger offense goes in the tank, Detroit flounders faster than the Edmund Fitzgerald. If not, they could steal this division out from under the Twins and White Sox.

And At the Halfway Mark:

This team is all about Justin Verlander, Jose Valverde and just enough other pitching to support a line-up which has 4 players batting over .300, 5 on a pace to drive in 80 RBIs; 3 of those may drive in 100.

10) St. Louis Cardinals – Previous Rank #3 ↓7

What We Said Originally:

Upside: At least they still have Albert Pujols. If Lance Berkman has anything left in the tank, if Colby Rasmus can become an All-Star, and if Jake Westbrook can pitch as well as he did in the 2nd half of last year, the Cards can keep the Reds honest in the NL Central.

Downside: This might be the end for the LaRussa era in St. Louis. Even if Pujols stays with the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright’s future is now a question mark, Chris Carpenter’s dominating ways are nearing an end, Jamie Garcia can’t be counted on to be as good as he was last year, and it wasn’t that long ago Colby Rasmus was making trade demands.

And At the Halfway Mark:

If back in March I asked you to tell me you to tell who would be leading the Cards in the “triple-crown” categories, the three guys out of one hundred who didn’t say “Albert Pujols” likely would have said “Matt Holliday.” Well, as the story in St. Louis has been all season long, the resurgence of Lance Berkman may see him notch a season similar to his best in 2002, when he hit .290 with 42 homers and 128 RBIs.

11) Cleveland Indians -Previous Rank #1 ↓10

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They have one good hitter in Shin-soo Choo, one good pitcher in Fausto Carmona, and one excellent catcher in Carlos Santana, and rumors keep swirling the Tribe has some interesting youngsters down on the farm.

Downside: The heyday for this team was fifteen years ago, and unless you can find a way to add Roger Dorn, Pedro Cerrano, Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn, and Jake Taylor to the roster, there will be more than one long summer in Cleveland’s near future.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Honestly, we still can’t figure this team out. We really have no idea how this team was the first to 30 wins, then plummeted to .500, and now looks again like a division contender when they are led by a shortstop nobody even heard of this time last year. While they lack an A+ superstar, this class of Indians has enough guys having B-or-better season to have brought them this far. The question is does it continue?

12) Arizona Diamondbacks – Previous Rank #17 ↑5

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Kevin Towers has taken over as GM, so the rebuilding can begin.

Downside: It’s going to get worse before it gets better in Arizona. This was a team on the rise just a few years ago, now there will be a long rebuilding process. It starts with trading Justin Upton.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Don’ t look now, but this team has 12 guys with slugging percentages of .400 or better, which is the major reason they are only three games back of the defending World Champions.

13) Milwaukee Brewers – Previous Rank #12 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: There’s a love fest in Milwaukee. Everybody loves Zack Greinke in the NL.  Everybody loves the Shaun Marcum acquisition. Everybody loves Prince Fielder in a contract year.

Downside: All this love is still in Milwaukee. The Brewer line-up is thinner than light beer, and that will only get worse when Fielder gets traded.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Yeah, I know Ryan Braun is the real deal. Yeah, I know Rickie Weeks may very well be a star on the rise. But Prince Fielder is the engine that drives this team, and he ain’t going to be a Brewer much longer. Couple that with a pitching staff consisting of Yovani Gallardo and a cat of frauds, look for this team to take a big dive once Fielder is gone.

14) Toronto Blue Jays – Previous Rank #14 ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This team has talent that should really give them a bright future.

Downside: The future isn’t today. The Blue Jays had a great season last year due to a rejuvenated offense led by Jose Bautista’s 54 homers. That isn’t likely to happen again, but if it does, Toronto could be in the three-way fight to finish third in the AL East.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Two words – Jose Bautista…and his major-league leading 31 homers, along with 65 RBI and a .334 average. In other words, what wasn’t likely to happen again did just that.

15)  Cincinnati Reds – Previous Rank #9 ↓6

What We Said Originally:

Upside:  This team has one of the two young pitching staffs with  huge potential. They also have a reigning MVP in Joey Votto, and all signs point to this being the breakout year for Jay Bruce. Plus, they are in the NL Central, where nobody is going to be any good.

Downside: That pitching staff is managed by Dusty “The Ligament Shredder” Baker, and there’s no telling how long the Scott Rolen miracle will continue.

And At the Halfway Mark:

The Reds prove that pitching is what wins championships. Cincinnati leads the National League in runs scored, are third in home runs, are fourth in team batting average, are third in on-base percentage, and  fourth in slugging percentage.  So why are they in 4th place, behind even the Pittsburgh Pirates? Because the Reds are 4th worst in WHIP and 3rd worst in team ERA.

16) Pittsburgh Pirates – Previous Rank #24 ↑8

What We Said Originally:

Upside: All things considered, the Pirates have actually cobbled together some pieces that threaten to put them on the verge of respectability. Don’t get me wrong, they aren’t there yet, but with some young talent like Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez, they at least have something to build on.

Downside: But will they build on it? You don’t go through two decades of being a laughing stock without making a science out of bad decision making. Also, if they decide to build, will they finally invest in some pitching?

And At the Halfway Mark:

Sit down before you read any further. The Pirates are over .500 at the All-Star break for the first time since 1992. Let that sink in for a moment. The last time the Pirates had 47 wins at this point in the season, the Minnesota Twins were the defending World Champions, George H.W. Bush was president, and a gallon of gasoline cost $1.13.

17) Washington Nationals – Previous Rank #27 ↑10

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This team certainly seems to get the idea that their time starts in 2012 or 2013, and they are building to that. There future is so bright, they may in fact need to wear shades.They’ve cracked open the piggy-bank, even to a ridiculous level, but in that spend-gasm they have sent the message they intend to field a competitive team built around the young phenoms in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.  The pitching staff is solid, although unspectacular.

Downside: Timing…this is the year the Gnats take a step toward the future by finishing in front of the meltdown known as the Mets. But this year is the last year before the expectations are going to go up. They can still be terrible this year, but if they finish fifth in 2013, they may just become a red version of the Cubs.

And At the Halfway Mark:

This team has a solid young core of emerging stars such a s Micheal Morse, Danny Espinoza, and Ryan Zimmerman. The Gnats also have a solid core of quality veterans to mentor the youngsters such as Laynce  Nix, Ivan Rodriguez and Matt Stairs.  Jayson Werth is not included in either category.

18)  Colorado Rockies – Previous Rank #15 ↓3

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They have 3 of the most exciting young players in baseball in Ubaldo Jimenez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Gonzalez.

Downside: That’s really all they have.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Ubaldo Jimenez has yet to win his fifth game. Brian Wilson, the closer for the Giants, has six.

19)  Seattle Mariners – Previous Rank #20  ↑1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Felix Hernandez. Here’s how a guy wins a Cy Young Award on 13 measly wins: 2.27 ERA, 249.2 innings, 232 K, 1.06 WHIP, and a .212 BAA. He’s either the lynchpin of your pitching rotation for the next decade, or he’s the guy you will get a king’s ransom for some July in the future.

Downside: The line-up. After Ichiro, Seattle becomes a black hole of offense. This team will struggle to score three runs a game. If this team wins 75 games, I will eat my keyboard.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Here’s the race. The Mariners have played 91 team games and have won 43. This places them on a pace to win 77 games, which per my previous statement, would necessitate my eating my keyboard.

20) Chicago White Sox – Previous Rank #18 ↓2

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This is another line-up that will score runs, especially with the addition of Adam Dunn and the fact they will be no longer wasting at-bats on Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones.  If  Alex Rios’ resurgence wasn’t a fluke, if they can get Carlos Quentin healthy, and if Gordon Beckham plays like he did late last  year, they could run away with the AL Central.

Downside: Also known as the reasons why they won’t win the division, namely a pitching staff that is completely fraudulent after Mark Buehrle, and the fact they have no depth. A couple of key injuries, and this team suddenly becomes the Royals.

And At the Halfway Mark:

The more things change, the more they stay the same. This team is sinking like a stone, largely because of the same stuff we said last time…Adam Dunn Done suddenly can’t hit left-handed pitching; no one strikes out quite like Done. It looks so effortless. A lot of people don’t know this,. but “Pierzynski” is actually a Polish word meaning “second base is open and waiting for you.”  I mean, he does know you can try to throw runners out, right? Gordon Beckham is hitting more like Gordon Lightfoot, and Jake Peavy has a right arm like Dr. Strangelove.

21) Florida Marlins – Previous Rank #15 ↓6

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Don’t look now, but this team can pitch.

Downside: What will the offense be without Dan Uggla, and what will Mike Stanton do in a full season?

And At the Halfway Mark:

Remember when we said this team can pitch? Yeah, forget that. And other than Mike Stanton, they can’t hit either. This is why the Marlins fired Fredi Gonzalez and joined Penn State as the only other major sports program led by an octogenarian.

22) New York Mets – Previous Rank #22  ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside: If you believe in rays of hope, here’s a couple.  Brad Emaus will have double digit home runs and stolen bases for the Mets…his on-base percentage in the minors the last two years was .402 and .395, respectively.  Jose Reyes will score 100 runs, steal 40 bases and hit double-digit home runs…he’s in a contract year, and numbers like that could make him baseball’s next $100 million.

Downside: Right after any of those things happen, we can all join hands and visit the fairy princess together. Not only does the ownership situation threaten to sink the ship, it completely kills the ability to make the moves the Mets need to stay relevant in the NL East. Let’s face it, meltdown, dumpster fire, train wreck…they all are synonymous with “Mets.”

And At the Halfway Mark:

While the Mets are actually a game over .500, that ain’t gonna last. This team is a train wreck, and the most recent injury to Jose Reyes is just the beginning of the end in Queens.

23) Los Angeles Dodgers – Previous Rank #22 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They have a couple of decent starters, they have some interesting arms in the bullpen, and Frank McCourt likely won’t own this team much longer.

Downside: Here’s the Dodgers represented in punctuation ???????????????????????????????????? This team is nothing but a parade of questions, not the least of which is who will own it this time next year? Who will pay the bills until then? Who, if anybody on this offense is actually going to do something at the plate?

And At the Halfway Mark:

Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier tend to hide how truly shitty this team is, and that isn’t even accounting for the impending front-office apocalypse.

24) Oakland Athletics – Previous Rank #21 ↓3

What We Said Originally:

Upside: This is the other team with the fascinating young pitching staff. The top four starters in Oakland combined for a 3.16 ERA in 700 innings pitched last season.

Downside: Their offense was what let them down last year, and they only added Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham. There aren’t a lot of guarantees on engine performance when you only add two used spark plugs.

And At the Halfway Mark:

Until Oakland finds a way to clone Gio Gonzalez and gets an offense that can bat better than .233, watching this team is like watching concrete harden.

25)  San Diego Padres – Previous Rank #28 ↑3

What We Said Originally:

Upside: You really can’t beat the weather in San Diego…and they still have a nice, albeit thin,  pitching staff.

Downside:  The competitive days are over, at least for a while. With the departure of Adrian Gonzalez, this team will be in rebuilding mode for a while.

And At the Halfway Mark:

The pitching is carrying this team – the Padres are fourth in team ERA, hits allowed, and WHIP. However, at the plate they are dead last in team batting average, runs socred, hits, and home runs.

26) Minnesota Twins – Previous Rank #30 ↑4

What We Said Originally:

Upside: No matter what, this team always gets a miracle out of somebody when they need it, as in Jim Thome last year.

Downside: They might need that miracle, because this team really underwhelms me on paper, especially if this Morneau concussion situation keeps dragging on. Besides, to be honest, I’m growing weary of the Twins model – start slow, finish strong, get crushed by the Yankees in October.

And At the Halfway Mark: 

The minor miracles this team is getting are still being outweighed in a crushing manner by the things going wrong. For example, one of the following lists is line-up card from any point this season; the other is of Twins who have at some point been on the disabled list. Which one is which?

List A:

• Tsuyoshi Nishioka
• Denard Span
• Michael Cuddyer
• Justin Morneau
• Jim Thome
• Delmon Young
• Jason Kubel
• Danny Valencia
• Drew Butera
• Alexi Casilla
• P – Kevin Slowey
• P – Jose Mijares

List B:

• Tsuyoshi Nishioka
• Denard Span
• Joe Mauer
• Justin Morneau
• Jim Thome
• Jason Kubel
• Delmon Young
• Jason Repko
• P- Francisco Liriano
• P- Joe Nathan

List B is the disabled list, and it isn’t even the complete list.

27) Chicago Cubs – Previous Rank #25 ↓4

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Its spring, when Cubs fans everywhere have hope that at long last, this will finally be the year the winning drought in Wrigley Field ends.

Downside: The Cubs have an average-at-best rotation, and aging stars on offense. Spring becomes summer; the drought continues.

And At the Halfway Mark: 

The Cubs faithful aren’t waiting until their usual August departure from the Friendly Confines. Many Cubs fans are showing up at Wrigley these days disguised as empty seats.

28) Baltimore Orioles – Previous Rank #19 ↓9

What We Said Originally:

Upside: Don’t look now, but this team doesn’t suck.  Seriously, it jumped out at me how not terrible this line-up is: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy…and with Jake Fox crushing the ball this spring, Buck Showalter is going to have some interesting options on the line-up card.

Downside: Even though Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman show a ton of potential in the rotation, the rest of the pitching staff is thinner than an Ethiopian swimsuit model.

And At the Halfway Mark: 

This team’s trouble is as transparent as good plate glass.  They hit a lot of home runs, yet they don’t score a lot of runs. That means this team doesn’t get a lot of base-runners. Look out if they ever figure out how to get a runner or two on base before the blast.

29) Kansas City Royals – Previous Rank #29 ↔

What We Said Originally:

Upside: They got rid of the over-rated and soon-to-be-oft-injured Zach Grienke, and the monstrously overpaid Gil Meche. Now all they have to do is get rid of humps like anybody currently in the Royal outfield and the entire pitching staff except for Joakim Soria, so they can start bringing up the talent they are over-stocked on in the minors.

Downside: General Manager Dayton Moore is a bit of an unproven commodity, so there’s no guarantee that he isn’t going to mortgage the future if the fans expectations suddenly outstrip the team’s talent.

And At the Halfway Mark: 

History moves on…this is the same thing that has been happening in Kansas City ever since George Brett retired.

30) Houston Astros – Previous Rank #29 ↓1

What We Said Originally:

Upside:  See the Tampa Bay Rays…hopefully the nightmare is over soon.  Last year saw the Astros had a fire sale which leaves them arguably as a Texas version of the Pirates, although I’m not sure the are as good as the Pirates. After the carnage, they are left with a team consisting of a pitching staff starring a warmed-over Brett Myers and a pseudo-talented outfield. Hunter Pence is entering his prime and coming off a .282/25/91 season and now carries the torch as Houston’s best player. In left field, Carlos Lee still can put up some power numbers, although he’s is begin to show the signs of age. Michael Bourn swiped 52 bases last season and  Jason Michaels can play all three outfield positions.

Downside: Look at the Upside. Hunter Pence is your best player. Brett Myers is your best pitcher.  The credible concept has been floated you are worse than the Pirates <shudders>.

And At the Halfway Mark: 

The theory about the Astros being worse than the Pirates has proven true. Congratulations should go out to new Astros owner Jim Crane. You now own a team that probably with be the doormat of the league for the next five years.