EDITOR’S NOTE: Boyd Bergquist was the sports director at KETS-TV in East Tree Stump, Nebraska for almost 40 years. Known across the Husker state as the voice of the Boy’s High School Basketball Tournament, Bergquist was a four-time winner of the Marv J. Butz “Golden Cob” Award For Excellence In Nebraska Broadcast Journalism. That background, along with his quick if not cliché-riddled wit and love of single-malt scotch makes Bergquist a perfect fit to be our “sports” guy.
Like the song says, Camptown Race Track might be five miles long, but that’s nothing compared to 162 games. As we find ourselves deep in the hype of the first week of the National Football League, we still need to take a look at the “home stretch” of this horse race. And like a horse race, I break the baseball season down into four parts; the last obviously being the run for the roses.
But before we get down to the dash to the wire, let’s recap where we’ve been. If you recall, I’m not about the usual “power ranking” stuff. Instead, I started this season by breaking down all 30 major league squads into six easy-to-understand groups based on what I thought these teams could realistically expect in 2026. Those original six categories were as follows.
- Ready To Win Right Now: These are teams which are ready to climb the mountain right now…no ifs, ands or buts.
- There’s Just One Thing Missing: Did you ever almost complete a jigsaw puzzle, but the three pieces you have remaining don’t fit the holes you have left? Welcome to the stories of these teams.
- Need Some Things To Go Their Way: Welcome to a collection of clubs who almost have the goods to win on their own; but anything is possible if they get more than one “lucky break.”
- At Least They Don’t Suck: Do I really need to explain this one?
- Why Wait For Next Year? One way or another, these teams need to make a decision about the future.
- It’s Going To Be A Long Summer: Everybody has hope on Opening Day, but some lose it far faster than others.
Once we got to Memorial Day, I had six new categories at the “far turn.” which again should be fairly self-explanatory.
- Just As We Expected: Teams performing just as expected.
- So Far, So Good: Teams which are very much in the thick of the race at this point.
- Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left: Read this as teams potentially over-achieving.
- It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet: This is for teams who may have stumbled out of the gate, but still have plenty of time
- Better Figure It Out Quick: A category for teams whose problems are severe, despite the fact there a lot of race left.
- It’s Not Too Early To Say It’s Over: Even at this juncture, it’s a safe bet these teams are finished.
Independence Day roughly marks the half-way point which the time to separate everybody into the only two categories that matter; pretenders and contenders.
Some teams helped themselves at the deadline, and some didn’t. But as we hit Labor Day and sprint toward October, there’s really no doubting this race is rounding into form. Now it’s time to look at who can get to the Winner’s Circle, and who is going to spit the bit.
October Derby Post Positions
16) Texas Rangers
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +7000
Every time I start thinking the Rangers can make a move, they lose a series in which they get outscored by 15 runs. But, being in a contender in the American League means never having to say your sorry; it means you can go 6-7 in a stretch against the A’s, Angels, and Nationals and still be considered in this discussion.
15) St. Louis Cardinals
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +100000
Will the real St. Louis Cardinals please stand up? There has to be two completely different team wearing the same uniforms. One look absolutely pathetic while getting railed in series against Baltimore and Philadelphia, then came to life and took two out of three from the Dodgers. It doesn’t really matter because both teams have the same problem; a beat-up pitching staff. Andre Pallante missed a start recently and may or may not be healthy, it could be 2028 before the Cards see Hunter Dobbins again, Kyle Leahy is on a restrictive pitch count, and their bullpen is “mid” at best. ,
14) Minnesota Twins
- Original Category: It’s Going To Be A Long Summer
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not Too Early To Say It’s Over
- All-Star Break Rating: Pretender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +30000
Take a lot of what I just said about the Cardinals, apply it to the Twins and you get a pretty close fit. The Twins are as “Jekyll and Hyde” as anybody; the same team that can sweep the Braves and look good doing it can immediately follow that by doing a complete face-plant against the Padres and the A’s.
13) Arizona Diamondbacks
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: So Far, So Good
- Odds To Win World Series: +8000
What else can you cay about a team that got a resurgence for Nolan Arenado, then followed in with the Ketel Marte saga? The Snakes really aren’t all that bad, but the National League is loaded in front of them. As of today, Arizona would be leading two of the American League’s three divisions.
12) San Diego Padres
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +4000
Here’s the team Arizona has to stay in front of to make the last NL Wild Card spot. I’ve got to go with the Friars here; the numbers tell the story. Despite his abysmal start, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been tearing the cover off the ball since the All-Star break and only the Braves and the Rays had more wins in August than did San Diego.
11) Cleveland Guardians
- Original Rating: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: So Far, So Good
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win The World Series: +3300
A testament to the weak nature of the AL play-off picture: two weeks ago, Cleveland was 5 games below .500. Today, they have every chance to win the AL Central. However, this is yet another offensively challenged Guardians squad, but Jo Adell has been producing at an ~.860 OPS clip since being acquired from the Los Angeles Kroenkes.
10) Chicago White Sox
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: It’s Not “Panic” Time…Yet
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +2200
As of today, the .500 St. Louis Cardinals are the only team remaining on the Mighty Whiteys schedule that does not have a losing record.
9) Houston Astros
- Original Category: Why Wait Until Next Year?
- Memorial Day Category: Better Figure It Out Quick
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Sell
- Odds To Win World Series: +2500
Apparently when it comes to baseball, the old saying becomes changes to “everything is more mediocre in Texas.” As previously mentioned, the Rangers recently went 6-7 against three bad teams. Well, the Astros mirrored that in a stretch against the Mariners, A’s, Angels, and Giants. Both teams had chances to grab a commanding lead in the AL Weakest of the Weak West; instead they both knee-gagged a golden opportunity and ended up below .500.
8 ) Boston Red Sox
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: Better Figure It Out Quick
- All-Star Break Rating: Pretender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1300
Don’t look now, but the Boston Red Sox have been arguably the best team in baseball since the All-Star break. They have the best record since then, but more importantly they lead the bigs in come-from -behind wins during that time. As cliché as it sounds, winning teams find ways to win…and that’s exactly what the Red Sox do.
7) Chicago Cubs
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just Like I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1400
Let’s put Pete Crow Armstrong’s ascent to being the best player in the game in perspective. Really, the Cubs have only had three players have seasons like this in the franchise’s history: Rogers Hornsby in 1929, Ernie Banks in 1959, and Sammy Sosa in 2001. That not withstanding, the Cubs are easily the most mercurial team in the majors. Nobody has more “red hot to ice cold” stretches than they do. The most recent set saw the Cubs put some heat on the Brewers’ back side with a 9-2 run, then followed that with a 5-9 stretch… which for all intents and purposes ends their hopes for the NL Central title.
6) New York Yankees
- Original Category: There’s Just One Thing Missing
- Memorial Day Category: Just Like I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1700
Remember back in the day when the hard-core Giancarlo Stanton apologists insisted there was a path to Cooperstown for him? That’s only going to happen if they open an Injured List Hall of Fame. More importantly, has anybody else noticed just how much time Aaron Judge has missed in recent seasons and how toothless the Yanks are without him?
5) Philadelphia Phillies
- Original Category: Need Some Things To Go Their Way
- Memorial Day Category: Just Like I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1100
The Phillies would be much higher on this list if the season didn’t start until May. Since their abysmal April, Philadelphia has found every possible way to win games. From crushing blow-outs powered by Schwarber and Co.’s lumber company (which has also supplied some wild comebacks), clutch hitting to set the table for those big bats, “”small-ball” when the thunder doesn’t come, and dominating pitching sprinkled throughout, the Phils are much more of a threat than the front-runners might think.
4) Tampa Rays
- Original Category: Why Wait For Next Year?
- Memorial Day Category: Off To A Great Start, But There’s A Lot of Season Left
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1000
The Rays didn’t have the greatest August, but they still have the inside rail for the AL East crown and the best record in the American League. However, they do need to run a gauntlet of contenders to get both. Of their last six series, five are against post-season contenders, including a four-gamer at Yankee Stadium in the last week of the season.
3) Milwaukee Brewers
- Original Category: At Least They Don’t Suck
- Memorial Day Category: So Far, So Good
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +750
The Brewers have won 90 games or more 12 times; 5 of those seasons have been in the last 8. But they have yet to have a 100-win season. They can make that mark by winning 12 of their last 20. In 56 years of Brewer baseball, this is easily the “Golden Era.”
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just Like I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +165
FACT: The Dodgers were a .500 team in August.
FACT: The Dodgers were 2-12 in August against teams who had winning records.
FACT: Shohei Ohtani is still only about 80%, but that makes him better than 95% of MLB.
FACT: The Dodgers will be just fine. They can stay on cruise control until October.
1) Atlanta Braves
- Original Category: Ready To Win Right Now
- Memorial Day Category: Just Like I Expected
- All-Star Break Rating: Contender/Buy
- Odds To Win World Series: +1400
The race here between the Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves is all about play-off musical chairs; there’s two first-round byes and three teams in the running. Get your money on your horse in this race because it may be the only thing really interesting thing left as we head to the wire.
Next stop: Play-off Previews!
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