A rule for professional gamblers is that to make money, you need to win 52.5% of your bets. You have to be better than 50/50 because you have to pay the “juice;” the cost of placing bets. That’s really where the book makes their money; win, lose, or push…the house is getting it’s cut.
Not to mention, books play the long game. They do so because not only do they know guys like me will always keep coming back; they also know eventually we’ll have a complete wipe-out.
For me, that wipe-out came last week.
Needless to say, hitting only 20% of your bets is a problem, but things get worse when you consider them on a dollar-cost averaging basis. Of the $2,805 I put in harm’s way last week, I lost $2,105 of them. You don’t need to be a CPA to know that ain’t good.
The worst part about such “wipe-outs” is such complete and total destruction starts early and never stops. It’s just a matter of knowing when it’s time to abandon all hope and accept the fact it just not going to be your day.
If you haven’t guessed by now, last week was a tough one for the J-Dub Gambling Challenge Bankroll. I fell off the skateboard and skinned my knee to the tune of $2,105. While that hurts, I’m still above water from the original $5K at $5,405.
I just can’t many more “just not my days.”
LEGAL DISCLAIMER (mandated by our very own Small Town Pizza Lawyer):
Thanks to the Supreme Court, gambling is no longer illegal at Bushwood, sir. However, the Supreme Court can’t really help me unless one of them is willing to keep Mrs. J-Dub from braining me with a cast-iron skillet if she found out how many dimes I’m dropping on college football.
That means that as far as she knows, all wagers are mythical in nature and this is in no way, shape, or form a gambling advice column. In other words, if you lose your own “real” money, that’s nobody’s fault but yours, so don’t yell at me when we meet at the plasma center on Monday.
If you think you have a gambling problem, go find the 800 number on your own. I’m not a goddamn public service announcement.
The Standard Plays
- Southern Methodist (-9.5) at Syracuse O/U 58.5 $75 Southern Methodist
- Arizona at Texas Tech (-3.5) O/U 55 $150 Texas Tech
- Wisconsin at Iowa (-3.5) O/U 36.5 $100 Iowa, $100 Over
- Michigan (-14) at Rutgers O/U 49.5 $75 Michigan, $75 Under
- Kansas State at Colorado (-1.5) 47 $150 Kansas State
- Minnesota at Indiana (-19.5) O/U 43.5 $50 Under
- Kansas at Texas Christian (-5.5) 47.5 $125 Texas Christian
- Arizona State at Brigham Young (-15.5) O/U 49.5 $100 Under
- Northwestern at Oregon (-3.5) O/U 49.5 $75 Under
- Utah (-6.5) at Cincinnati O/U 58 $150 Utah
- South Carolina at Oklahoma (-5.5) 44.5 $250 South Carolina
- Miami (FL) (-14) at North Carolina O/U 53.5 $150 Miami (FL)
- Ohio State (6.5) at Southern California O/U 50.5 $100 Ohio State, $100 Over
- Missouri (-10) at Arkansas O/U 49.5 $250 Missouri
- Washington at Nebraska (-8.5) O/U 49.5 $100 Washington
The Native North Dakota Bet:
Thanks to having a parent in the U.S. Air Force, I was born in the Peace Garden State. 18 years later, I ended up in college there…but I went to the hockey school, not the football school. But until my alma mater moves up to FBS, I’m betting on “Moo U.”
Texas-El Paso at North Dakota State (-24.5) O/U 43.5 $100 NDSU
The Almost Always Punitive Purdue Bet:
Since I live in the heart of Big Ten country, almost literally in the shadow of Ross-Ade stadium, those around me who know I’m a gambler will invariably ask me about the Boilermakers, so I might as well bet on them…
Purdue at Penn State (-10) O/U 54.5 $100 Purdue, $100 Under
The Royally Ridiculous Line of the Week:
Introduced by our own guest columnist King George VI (the grandfather of the current King Charles III), this feature is all about the line of the week that’s so outrageous, it’s almost as crazy as we Americans find the idea of a monarch.
Notre Dame (-30.5) at Navy O/U 57 $50 Navy
The Dubsism College Football Heavyweight Champ Bet:
We went back to the very first college football game in 1869, and the premise is simple…you’re the champ until somebody beats you. The current champion is the Brigham Young University Cougars.
Baylor (-1.5) at Central Florida O/U 48 $50 Over
J-Dub’s Payday of the Week:
It’s like the game says…the idea is to hang on to your cash. That means this is the “big play” of the week; the one that should make today “Payday.”
Florida at Georgia (-10.5) O/U 56.5 $1,000 Georgia
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