Today’s Argument: Craig Counsell is Baseball’s Most Overrated Manager

When the Chicago Cubs hired Craig Counsell as their skipper after the 2023 season, there was Great Lakes’ freighter- sized narrative floating the idea that the Northsiders had just hired the best manager in baseball. After this most recent post-season belly-flop, it’s time to recalibrate that narrative.

The common perception at the time was Counsell was a bench genius who knew how to get the best out of his players; a skill which explained how he enjoyed success in “small-market” Milwaukee. He had been the team’s manager since 2015, a nine-season stretch which up to the time had been the longest period of success in franchise history; the highlights being 5 post-season appearances, 4 division titles…but only one post-season series win.

When you consider that roughly matches the Brewers entire franchise history (including their 1969 inaugural season as the Seattle Pilots) prior to Counsell’s hiring, it’s not hard to see that forming the skeleton of the “best manager” narrative. But it was the media that fleshed it out with a boat load of fluff.

That’s when the story got loaded with Counsell being a native Wisconsinite having grown up in Whitefish Bay. Then came the requisite “he spent many of his early days at Milwaukee’s County Stadium.” Then it was topped with every Brewer fan remembering Counsell playing for Milwaukee in large part due to his exceptionally goofy batting stance and his tenure in the team’s front office. Next thing you know the “hometown boy” is the “best manager in baseball.”

But is he really?

That’s a legitimate question because a lot of the narrative that prompted the Cubs to make him baseball’s highest paid manager at the time didn’t roll down I-94 with him. The “hometown boy” fluff dissolved the minute he started getting his mail in the Windy City. Now that Counsell is skippering the Chicago Cubs, the only narrative that matters is the one about their performance on the field. The proverbial “turd in the punchbowl” nobody wants to address is the Counsell apologists who built that fluff-ball narrative always pointed to the Brewers’ front office never giving him the extra pieces he needed to get that team over the hump.

Granted, Counsell’s time in Milwaukee saw him managing a team which whose front office consistently did not make the “big” free-agency moves or deals at the trade deadline. You can look at the lists of their free-agency acquisitions and trade deals yourself; keeping in mind that many of these deals are actually before Counsell’s tenure…one actually involves Counsell himself in his playing days.

Say what you will about the Cubs, but look at what the front office did for Counsell in terms of acquisitions.

• 2024-25: Re-signed Cody Bellinger, signed Shota Imonaga, Carson Kelly, and Matthew Boyd. Acquired Kye Tucker, Isaac Paredes, and Michael Busch.
• 2025-26: Signed Alex Bregman. Acquired Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, Aaron Civale

That list is far from exhaustive, but it’s enough to blow past anything the Brewers did during Counsell’s tenure. But it leads to another song sung by the Counsell apologists; another pantload of that “small market teams can’t compete” crap. Yeah, I know the Chicago market is orders of magnitude larger than Milwaukee, the Cubs are one of the richest teams in the league, and the Cubs have a top-ten payroll. But if those factors have a direct correlation to a team’s level of competitiveness, then those apologists need to address the facts outlined in the following table.

TEAM	2026 PAYROLL	MLB RANK	2026 RECORD
Chicago Cubs	$250 million	7th	89-73
Houston Astros	$240 million	8th	81-81
San Diego Padres	$217 million	9th	91-71
Boston Red Sox	$199 million	12th	87-75
Milwaukee Brewers	$142 million	19th	103-59
Chicago White Sox	$94 million	27th	84-78
Tampa Bay Rays	$90 million	28th	98-64
Cleveland Guardians	$87 million	29th	85-77

This is all of the 2026 play-off teams which spent less than the Cubs did. Notice that only four of them posted worse won-loss records than did the Northsiders. Of the four teams who played in the Wild Card round, two of them lost…it just so happens to be the top two in terms of payroll.

Obviously, the small market/payroll argument doesn’t hold water. The Brewers spent $108 million less than the Cubs, yet finished with fourteen more wins. That’s a significant number because there’s an old adage in baseball that a manager’s decisions are worth roughly 15 wins per year.

The numbers in the table above really tell the story. The Brewers let Counsell head south, and their average win total went north by seven games per season. Once Counsell got to the North Side of Chicago, the Cubs ballooned their payroll. But the needle didn’t move; they continued finishing behind Milwaukee. The average cost per win in terms of payroll spent dropped in Milwaukee with Counsell’s departure; while the Cubs have consistently spent double what the Brewers have…only to keep ending up in the Wild Card round.

The “hometown boy” fluff is gone. The “disadvantage of the small-market” argument is gone. With both the fluff and the skeleton of the narrative on Counsell being debunked, what’s left? I’m sure there’s Cubs fans out there with a new narrative to defend their $40 million dollar manager. The reality is Craig Counsell can take your team to the play-offs, but he’s never managed a team to a league championship, let alone a World Series.

Logic dictates that getting better players for the “best manager in baseball” would make for different play-off outcomes. In Chicago, that has yet to happen. The Brewers had some talent under Counsell, but come October (where the importance of managerial decisions are magnified) that team underperformed. It was that regular-season success that prompted the Cubs to give him a 5-year/$40 million contract. But after three seasons in Chicago, there’s been two play-off appearances, and only one series win to date.

The bottom line is simple. If Craig Counsell is “the best manager in baseball,” he should have a better record of results. Until then, he’s just a lot of fluff.

Change my mind.

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